Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
apartment area buildings built centers country damages extended given good reach shopping tested unusually wet worse
Given that it's going to reach such an extended area and that it will be an unusually wet storm, damages are going to be a lot worse than $1 billion. So many homes, apartment buildings and shopping centers have been built in this part of the country that haven't been tested by a big storm. Now we're going to see just how good this construction has been.
sure
I don't think it's a sure thing they'll tighten in December, even if it is now more likely.
increase inflation meaningful numbers pick rent
If we see an increase in rent we could really see inflation numbers pick up in a meaningful way.
expect given weakest weakness
We expect to see weakness in the PPI given the weakness in manufacturing, which is the weakest part of the economy,
change coming latin less people
What would change this is if we were to see an unanticipated strengthening in the U.S. dollar. We'd see less people coming from Latin America.
fed funds higher knows manual neutral operating rate says
There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent,
coming damn economic interest percent plenty rates reports respond weak zero
We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.
both created jobs quality quantity seeing
We're seeing both the quantity and quality of the jobs being created improving.
along badly business came economy economy-and-economics inventory numbers realizing result revised saw second slightly trade weaker weakness week wider zero
We're just now realizing how badly off the economy was in the second quarter, ... The wider trade gap, along with the weakness we saw in the business inventory numbers that came out this week and weaker construction spending, will probably result in a second-quarter revised GDP number that will be zero or even slightly negative. It will be an eye-opening number, but it's no more worrisome than what we've seen.
bridge case cuts gap hiring hope picks plan precarious seems tax until
We hope it will be the case that tax cuts will bridge the gap until hiring picks up, but that seems like a pretty precarious plan. But it's the only plan we've got.
continues core fed finished further goods increases likely modest price prices production relatively series signs tops until
While core finished goods are still relatively tame, there are signs that price increases are accelerating further back in the production pipeline, ... Typically the Fed continues tightening until this series tops out. But with prices up only modestly, they will likely continue to make only modest adjustments.
bit close fear fed housing market maybe slowing takes today yesterday
Yesterday there was a little bit of a fear that maybe the housing market is not slowing down much and that the Fed has to do a little bit more, and today it takes some of that fear back out. They are really close to being done.
behind confidence consumer effects expect further gas higher holiday jump katrina lead prices season shopping
We expect a big jump in consumer confidence now that the effects of Katrina and higher gas prices are further behind us. Higher confidence will lead to a better-than-expected holiday shopping season as well.
almost crisis disturbing paid prices reading remain solid strong virtually
Virtually all indices remain at solid levels. It's a very strong reading for manufacturing overall. The most disturbing thing is the prices paid which is almost at crisis levels.