Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
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It's pretty early to have a good idea of what damage there is in the region. It is the damage to the energy infrastructure that is important to the national economy.
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They would like to raise rates, but right now, keeping rates a little too low would cause the least harm in the economy. If they raise rates after this weak employment report, people will be hollering. George Bush would be hollering the loudest.
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Inflation at the end of the day is headed higher, it's just not going to happen that dramatically this year.
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The biggest mistake of economists over the past 20 years ... We've consistently underestimated growth.
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So even if tomorrow's ISM report does not show anywhere near the weakness the Chicago report does, we could still see some follow through in the next month's numbers.
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The labor market seems to be improving. It bolsters the case we've been making that the economic slowdown story is a little oversold. Clearly growth is moderating, but we're still likely to see some decent growth the second half of the year.
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The labor market seems to be improving, ... It bolsters the case we've been making that the economic slowdown story is a little oversold. Clearly growth is moderating, but we're still likely to see some decent growth the second half of the year.
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The Miami economy is the strongest it has been in my memory as a professional economist, which goes back 22 years. International trade is booming. Population growth is strong. And all that growth is creating tremendous demand for services.
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The Fed has to conduct a bit of a high wire act. If rates were to rise quickly that would put part of the economic expansion at risk, particularly residential construction and commercial development.
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The federal response has been much larger than we thought it would be, ... And the money is being spent much more quickly.
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(The Fed) would rather see slower economic growth over the next two years than the return of stagflation three or four years down the road. And I think they'll do everything they have to make sure we don't have stagflation.
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The Fed will probably cut rates in both August and October by 25 basis points (a quarter-percentage point) each. We really don't know what they will do beyond that.
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The federal government is going to spend whatever they need to, to make some visible progress before next year's mid-term elections, ... And what that's going to do to an economy that's already at full employment is drive up the cost of cement, drive up the cost of steel, drive up the cost of labor.
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The Fed can't wait for core inflation to pick up before they act,