Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
building business consumer driven economy home shifting spending
We're shifting from an economy driven by consumer spending and home building to one driven by business investment.
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What happened in March, if you were thinking about buying a home this spring and you thought rates were going to rise, you may well have rushed into the market. The weather cooperated as well, making it easy for folks to get out and shop, particularly in the South.
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While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation, ... With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.
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With so many folks sensing that interest rates were rising, we probably had some sales pulled from April into March,
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When the federal government increases the budget deficit it increases interest rates on everybody, so it is like a tax increase on borrowing. What that means is that mortgages will be more expensive.
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There is some concern that we could see a much more hawkish stance from the Fed and that Greenspan may spell out a little more tightening than the markets had priced after the January employment number.
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The recent weakness in wage and salary growth is bad news for retailers, since wages and salaries, which account for more than 56 percent of personal income, tend to influence spending decisions far more than other income sources.
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When combined with the run-up in employee health-care costs, ... the inability to raise selling prices is the single most important reason that job growth has been lagging so much during this recovery.
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When combined with the anticipated double-digit gains in employer health-care costs, manufacturers may find it very difficult to add to their payrolls next year and may opt to work their existing work forces longer.
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We've had very little economic growth, virtually no job growth. The only way you'll get income growth is through wage increases or through tax cuts.
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We've had a pretty good run here in anticipation that the Fed is nearly done raising interest rates.
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While goods producers continue to have little to no pricing power, we still believe the odds of outright deflation remain fairly low.
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Unemployment is low in places that were and were not impacted by hurricanes. It has been low for quite some time all across the state.
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Exports are off in virtually every category. I don't see much near-term improvement for the trade deficit. The trade deficit will probably shave about 0.5 percent off of third quarter Gross Domestic Product.