Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
deficit domestic exports gross improvement percent quarter shave third trade virtually
Exports are off in virtually every category. I don't see much near-term improvement for the trade deficit. The trade deficit will probably shave about 0.5 percent off of third quarter Gross Domestic Product.
fairly healthy home level percent sales year
When all is said and done, we should still have a fairly healthy level of new home sales this year -- probably up 4 to 5 percent for the year.
account bad decisions far growth income influence news percent personal recent salary since spending tend wage wages weakness
The recent weakness in wage and salary growth is bad news for retailers, since wages and salaries, which account for more than 56 percent of personal income, tend to influence spending decisions far more than other income sources.
accelerate annual below continue core exception fed few gradually interest means months next past percent policy pressures price pushing rate recent rose slightly three trends unlikely
Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.
coming damn economic interest percent plenty rates reports respond weak zero
We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.
accounts motor overall percent rebound retail rise sales vehicle
A rebound in motor vehicle sales accounts for much of December's 0.7 percent rise in overall retail sales and is also responsible for much of November's upward revision.
above growth higher home impact job low march mean month mortgage overcomes percentage point rates remain sales stronger
The impact of stronger job growth more than overcomes the impact of higher mortgage rates. It doesn't mean we'll have a month like March every month. But home sales should remain strong even with mortgage rates about a percentage point above the low point.
below carolina familiar finish hang likely mean near north percent position rate somewhere year
The unemployment rate is likely to hang around 4.5 percent and finish the year somewhere near 4 percent. That would mean that North Carolina would be back in the familiar position of having an unemployment rate below that of the nation.
beer cars consumers core dollars fewer gasoline helping higher left money move net order prices result seems spent
While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation, ... With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.
combined employee growth health inability job prices raise reason selling single
When combined with the run-up in employee health-care costs, ... the inability to raise selling prices is the single most important reason that job growth has been lagging so much during this recovery.
add combined difficult employer existing forces gains health next work year
When combined with the anticipated double-digit gains in employer health-care costs, manufacturers may find it very difficult to add to their payrolls next year and may opt to work their existing work forces longer.
believe continue deflation fairly goods odds outright pricing producers remain
While goods producers continue to have little to no pricing power, we still believe the odds of outright deflation remain fairly low.
building business consumer driven economy home shifting spending
We're shifting from an economy driven by consumer spending and home building to one driven by business investment.
april folks interest pulled rates sales
With so many folks sensing that interest rates were rising, we probably had some sales pulled from April into March,