Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
economy-and-economics georgia improve transform trying
They are trying to transform their economy. Georgia is trying to improve its economy.
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It really depends on when you get the flat curve. Right now with the low rates, I don't see dire implications from a flattening yield curve. It just is accurately indicating that the economy is slowly or moderating.
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I truly believe that they would like to stop at 5 percent, but if we get a really strong number (for economic growth) in the first quarter it may be hard to do that.
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The problem with the November employment numbers is hiring for the holiday season. It's hard to get a gauge of what it's going to be. They do a seasonal adjustment to the number to account for that, but the seasonal adjustment causes wider swings. And this year Thanksgiving came later in the month, so hiring might have started after the November data was collected.
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The prices paid is still way up there, inflation is still running a little hot, enough that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.
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We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.
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We're just now realizing how badly off the economy was in the second quarter, ... The wider trade gap, along with the weakness we saw in the business inventory numbers that came out this week and weaker construction spending, will probably result in a second-quarter revised GDP number that will be zero or even slightly negative. It will be an eye-opening number, but it's no more worrisome than what we've seen.
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We're seeing both the quantity and quality of the jobs being created improving.
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There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent,
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It continues to defy all the expectations of doom in the housing market. Demand for housing still remains quite strong and this year will be a record year for single-family construction.
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It (consumer sentiment) was a little higher than expected, but the stock market has come back, gasoline prices have come down, and the weather has been beautiful and that has to affect consumers somewhat.
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It confirms that this recession in 2001 was not particularly mild or as short as some folks had thought, ... We were expecting at least two negative quarters, and the fact we had three is a little bit of a surprise. That helps explain why we're having so much difficulty generating some positive momentum right now. The economy was weaker than we had thought.
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We're likely to see large upward revision to earlier data, so it'll be harder for January to show a big gain.
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The debate about tax cuts shouldn't be whether they helped or not -- they clearly helped taxpayers. The debate should be whether we can afford them and whether they can lead to a sustained recovery in economy.