Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
building business consumer driven economy home shifting spending
We're shifting from an economy driven by consumer spending and home building to one driven by business investment.
acceptable businesses consumer cooling curb economic falling growth months orders production reason recent risen spending
The No. 1 reason new orders and production are falling is that inventories have risen in recent months as consumer spending has slowed, ... Such a buildup was acceptable when economic growth was accelerating. Now that growth is cooling off, businesses will need to curb stockpiles.
along badly business came economy economy-and-economics inventory numbers realizing result revised saw second slightly trade weaker weakness week wider zero
We're just now realizing how badly off the economy was in the second quarter, ... The wider trade gap, along with the weakness we saw in the business inventory numbers that came out this week and weaker construction spending, will probably result in a second-quarter revised GDP number that will be zero or even slightly negative. It will be an eye-opening number, but it's no more worrisome than what we've seen.
boost businesses costs energy fed growth hiking hire hiring interest labor looks markets output rates recent reluctant
The most recent acceleration in productivity growth looks like it was cyclically driven, ... Even with output soaring, many businesses were reluctant to boost hiring because the Fed was hiking interest rates and energy costs were surging. Even if businesses wanted to hire more workers, many could not because the labor markets were so tight.
again business hiring lead services
Hiring in business and professional services will once again lead the way.
biggest businesses caution cautious economy employment excessive growth irrational lack reason strong
In the '90s we had irrational exuberance. Now we have excessive caution. And that's the biggest headwind this economy is facing, ... The lack of strong employment growth is one more reason for businesses to be cautious and can be a self-fulfilling prophesy.
fairly healthy home level percent sales year
When all is said and done, we should still have a fairly healthy level of new home sales this year -- probably up 4 to 5 percent for the year.
attracted greater portion
The same thing that has attracted retirees over the years is still there: the weather. You can do more things for a greater portion of the year.
coming expected gain job likely state states
The state is expected to gain 150,000 new residents this year, with two-thirds of the adults likely coming from other states for job opportunities.
awful create labor market mess tight
It would create an awful mess in Florida, where the labor market is tight by any definition.
anecdotal anywhere common common-sense core evidence inflation near
Anecdotal evidence and common sense suggests that core inflation has not been anywhere near this tame.
cause damage flood insurance lack likely recovery tend
Flood damage does not tend to be as insured. The lack of insurance is likely to cause the recovery to be delayed,
above below came gas higher huge interest knock market number prices rates relief rising sign
There was a huge sign of relief when the number came in above 100, and that's why the market rallied, ... There was a thought that the combination of rising interest rates and higher gas prices would knock it below 100.
serious view
We do not view this as anything more serious than a much-needed correction.