Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
cause coming conclude economic expected fed heels inflation interest june leave news rates recent unchanged weaker
Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting, ... It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.
along badly business came economy economy-and-economics inventory numbers realizing result revised saw second slightly trade weaker weakness week wider zero
We're just now realizing how badly off the economy was in the second quarter, ... The wider trade gap, along with the weakness we saw in the business inventory numbers that came out this week and weaker construction spending, will probably result in a second-quarter revised GDP number that will be zero or even slightly negative. It will be an eye-opening number, but it's no more worrisome than what we've seen.
bit difficulty economy expecting explain fact folks generating helps mild momentum negative positive recession short three weaker
It confirms that this recession in 2001 was not particularly mild or as short as some folks had thought, ... We were expecting at least two negative quarters, and the fact we had three is a little bit of a surprise. That helps explain why we're having so much difficulty generating some positive momentum right now. The economy was weaker than we had thought.
happen headed inflation
Inflation at the end of the day is headed higher, it's just not going to happen that dramatically this year.
despite economy economy-and-economics energy higher resilient somewhat surprising
it's somewhat surprising how resilient the economy has been, despite higher energy prices.
biggest economists growth mistake past
The biggest mistake of economists over the past 20 years ... We've consistently underestimated growth.
bush cause employment george harm keeping low people raise rates weak
They would like to raise rates, but right now, keeping rates a little too low would cause the least harm in the economy. If they raise rates after this weak employment report, people will be hollering. George Bush would be hollering the loudest.
federal larger money response spent
The federal response has been much larger than we thought it would be, ... And the money is being spent much more quickly.
economic four growth next rather return slower sure three
(The Fed) would rather see slower economic growth over the next two years than the return of stagflation three or four years down the road. And I think they'll do everything they have to make sure we don't have stagflation.
august basis beyond both cut fed october points rates
The Fed will probably cut rates in both August and October by 25 basis points (a quarter-percentage point) each. We really don't know what they will do beyond that.
cost drive economy employment federal full government next progress spend visible whatever
The federal government is going to spend whatever they need to, to make some visible progress before next year's mid-term elections, ... And what that's going to do to an economy that's already at full employment is drive up the cost of cement, drive up the cost of steel, drive up the cost of labor.
core fed inflation pick wait
The Fed can't wait for core inflation to pick up before they act,
disturb hear interest rates sure
I'm not too sure we're going to hear that much that will disturb markets, but I'm sure he'll say at least something hinting that long-term interest rates are too low,
along beginning case fed gotten looks recession successful
It's beginning to look like the Fed was right all along ... and that the case for a recession has gotten a lot weaker. It looks like we're going to have a successful bumpy landing.