Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
across low places quite time
Unemployment is low in places that were and were not impacted by hurricanes. It has been low for quite some time all across the state.
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The upward revision results from the slightly lower than previously estimated trade deficit. We've already seen in July data that trade deficit has worsened in the third quarter.
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They would like to raise rates, but right now, keeping rates a little too low would cause the least harm in the economy. If they raise rates after this weak employment report, people will be hollering. George Bush would be hollering the loudest.
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It really depends on when you get the flat curve. Right now with the low rates, I don't see dire implications from a flattening yield curve. It just is accurately indicating that the economy is slowly or moderating.
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It's truly amazing unemployment has gotten this low in Florida when the population is growing as fast as it is.
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The impact of stronger job growth more than overcomes the impact of higher mortgage rates. It doesn't mean we'll have a month like March every month. But home sales should remain strong even with mortgage rates about a percentage point above the low point.
beer cars consumers core dollars fewer gasoline helping higher left money move net order prices result seems spent
While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation, ... With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.
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When combined with the run-up in employee health-care costs, ... the inability to raise selling prices is the single most important reason that job growth has been lagging so much during this recovery.
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When combined with the anticipated double-digit gains in employer health-care costs, manufacturers may find it very difficult to add to their payrolls next year and may opt to work their existing work forces longer.
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While goods producers continue to have little to no pricing power, we still believe the odds of outright deflation remain fairly low.
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We're shifting from an economy driven by consumer spending and home building to one driven by business investment.
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With so many folks sensing that interest rates were rising, we probably had some sales pulled from April into March,
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When the federal government increases the budget deficit it increases interest rates on everybody, so it is like a tax increase on borrowing. What that means is that mortgages will be more expensive.
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Exports are off in virtually every category. I don't see much near-term improvement for the trade deficit. The trade deficit will probably shave about 0.5 percent off of third quarter Gross Domestic Product.