Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
belief bleed core energy eventually people prices quarter seen
People keep asking, 'How can it be that we haven't seen energy prices bleed over into the core?' ... Our belief is that it will eventually show up in the core CPI, but it may not show up in 2005. It may be in first quarter of 2006.
baby dunk energy likely move prices raise rates remain slam
As long as energy prices remain high, they're likely to move in baby steps. I just don't think it's a slam dunk that they raise rates in December.
despite economy economy-and-economics energy higher resilient somewhat surprising
it's somewhat surprising how resilient the economy has been, despite higher energy prices.
damage early energy good national
It's pretty early to have a good idea of what damage there is in the region. It is the damage to the energy infrastructure that is important to the national economy.
based concern current economists energy food increase inflation labor overall raising recent source swings tight wage workers
Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices. However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI.
based concern current economists energy food increase inflation labor overall raising recent source swings tight wage workers
Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices, ... However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI.
boost businesses costs energy fed growth hiking hire hiring interest labor looks markets output rates recent reluctant
The most recent acceleration in productivity growth looks like it was cyclically driven, ... Even with output soaring, many businesses were reluctant to boost hiring because the Fed was hiking interest rates and energy costs were surging. Even if businesses wanted to hire more workers, many could not because the labor markets were so tight.
cause energy higher major prices problems rest
The higher energy prices have already spilled over into the rest of the economy. But it probably will not cause major problems for the economy.
beer cars consumers core dollars fewer gasoline helping higher left money move net order prices result seems spent
While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation, ... With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.
combined employee growth health inability job prices raise reason selling single
When combined with the run-up in employee health-care costs, ... the inability to raise selling prices is the single most important reason that job growth has been lagging so much during this recovery.
add combined difficult employer existing forces gains health next work year
When combined with the anticipated double-digit gains in employer health-care costs, manufacturers may find it very difficult to add to their payrolls next year and may opt to work their existing work forces longer.
believe continue deflation fairly goods odds outright pricing producers remain
While goods producers continue to have little to no pricing power, we still believe the odds of outright deflation remain fairly low.
building business consumer driven economy home shifting spending
We're shifting from an economy driven by consumer spending and home building to one driven by business investment.
april folks interest pulled rates sales
With so many folks sensing that interest rates were rising, we probably had some sales pulled from April into March,