Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
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Flood damage does not tend to be as insured. The lack of insurance is likely to cause the recovery to be delayed,
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There was a huge sign of relief when the number came in above 100, and that's why the market rallied, ... There was a thought that the combination of rising interest rates and higher gas prices would knock it below 100.
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There's just such an enormous demand from pension funds and insurance companies to match their assets with the liabilities of the boomer generation.
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The most recent acceleration in productivity growth looks like it was cyclically driven, ... Even with output soaring, many businesses were reluctant to boost hiring because the Fed was hiking interest rates and energy costs were surging. Even if businesses wanted to hire more workers, many could not because the labor markets were so tight.
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Some folks will be quick to jump on this morning's data as a sure sign that the next move by the Fed will be to cut interest rates. Such talk is still way too premature.
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The more important figure (than confidence) for the economy is what consumers actually do. Consumers are not sitting on their wallets just yet. But that is about the only bright spot in this morning's report. With consumers concerned about both their stock portfolios and employment prospects, spending will likely rise a little less rapidly this fall.
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Demand in the U.S. economy is reasonably strong and retailers are probably optimistic about the holiday shopping season so they are starting to order from abroad now. The trade deficit is going to take some time to turn around. It may not happen until next year.
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If folks correctly see the economy is booming in Florida, they'll make their way down to the Sunshine State and take a job. Maybe they'll stick around a while and fix a roof while they're here.
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I don't think there's much doubt the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point each of the next three meetings. Even a really strong report probably won't cause them to raise rates by a half-point.
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I don't see any storm clouds on the economic horizon. We don't see any potential land mines or problem areas. Even an attack on the scale of 9/11 would not cause the economy to go into recession in the next two years.
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Alabama wanted to diversify its economy, and it paid up to do it.
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It's beginning to look like the Fed was right all along ... and that the case for a recession has gotten a lot weaker. It looks like we're going to have a successful bumpy landing.
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The leadership in the economy is going to shift from housing and consumers to businesses. There's nothing unusual about that. It's healthy.
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The jobless recovery is well behind us. The economy right now is not really in a recovery mode, it's in a boom mode. Companies are going to be hiring out of fear if they don't, they lose an opportunity to make more money.