Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
bad coming horrific month news orleans people
I think it's going to be a bad month for retailers. The news was so horrific coming out of New Orleans that it made people not feel like going out to dinner.
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What would change this is if we were to see an unanticipated strengthening in the U.S. dollar. We'd see less people coming from Latin America.
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We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.
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The state is expected to gain 150,000 new residents this year, with two-thirds of the adults likely coming from other states for job opportunities.
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I don't know if the gas prices and interest rates will knock consumer confidence down in coming months, ... I think they're more likely to hold it where it is now, which is good, but not great.
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Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting, ... It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.
claims cold coming confidence consumer drop face heels including looking reports retail sales sharp slap stronger
Coming on the heels of stronger reports on retail sales and durable-goods orders, as well as a sharp drop in first-time claims for unemployment, this ... drop in consumer confidence was a cold slap in the face to all of those economists, including ourselves, that are looking for a second-half rebound.
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The relief money is coming in much faster than it has for any other natural disaster that I can remember. That should help minimize some of the hit on consumer spending,
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The major story in these places is very rapid population growth, with retirees, seasonal residents and tourists coming in,
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While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation, ... With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.
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When combined with the run-up in employee health-care costs, ... the inability to raise selling prices is the single most important reason that job growth has been lagging so much during this recovery.
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When combined with the anticipated double-digit gains in employer health-care costs, manufacturers may find it very difficult to add to their payrolls next year and may opt to work their existing work forces longer.
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While goods producers continue to have little to no pricing power, we still believe the odds of outright deflation remain fairly low.
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We're shifting from an economy driven by consumer spending and home building to one driven by business investment.