Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
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We've had very little economic growth, virtually no job growth. The only way you'll get income growth is through wage increases or through tax cuts.
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We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.
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We're just now realizing how badly off the economy was in the second quarter, ... The wider trade gap, along with the weakness we saw in the business inventory numbers that came out this week and weaker construction spending, will probably result in a second-quarter revised GDP number that will be zero or even slightly negative. It will be an eye-opening number, but it's no more worrisome than what we've seen.
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Overall this year the economy moved past the bursting of the stock market bubble. Tech companies finally started growing again and that's really benefited the Triangle.
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Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting, ... It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.
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The labor market seems to be improving. It bolsters the case we've been making that the economic slowdown story is a little oversold. Clearly growth is moderating, but we're still likely to see some decent growth the second half of the year.
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The labor market seems to be improving, ... It bolsters the case we've been making that the economic slowdown story is a little oversold. Clearly growth is moderating, but we're still likely to see some decent growth the second half of the year.
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The Miami economy is the strongest it has been in my memory as a professional economist, which goes back 22 years. International trade is booming. Population growth is strong. And all that growth is creating tremendous demand for services.
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The Fed has to conduct a bit of a high wire act. If rates were to rise quickly that would put part of the economic expansion at risk, particularly residential construction and commercial development.
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(The Fed) would rather see slower economic growth over the next two years than the return of stagflation three or four years down the road. And I think they'll do everything they have to make sure we don't have stagflation.
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In the end, we can work this out. It is $200 billion in spending for a $12 trillion economy, ... It's just a matter of how we finance it, not whether or not we can afford to do it.
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I really can't recall a time in history when the Florida economy was as strong as it is today.
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That tells me not only is the global economy not strengthening, but it's getting weaker.
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They rely on a lot of other things. When you look at economy in its totality, virtually everything is stronger than the employment data.