Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
above below came gas higher huge interest knock market number prices rates relief rising sign
There was a huge sign of relief when the number came in above 100, and that's why the market rallied, ... There was a thought that the combination of rising interest rates and higher gas prices would knock it below 100.
behind confidence consumer effects expect further gas higher holiday jump katrina lead prices season shopping
We expect a big jump in consumer confidence now that the effects of Katrina and higher gas prices are further behind us. Higher confidence will lead to a better-than-expected holiday shopping season as well.
continues core fed finished further goods increases likely modest price prices production relatively series signs tops until
While core finished goods are still relatively tame, there are signs that price increases are accelerating further back in the production pipeline, ... Typically the Fed continues tightening until this series tops out. But with prices up only modestly, they will likely continue to make only modest adjustments.
almost crisis disturbing paid prices reading remain solid strong virtually
Virtually all indices remain at solid levels. It's a very strong reading for manufacturing overall. The most disturbing thing is the prices paid which is almost at crisis levels.
beer cars consumers core dollars fewer gasoline helping higher left money move net order prices result seems spent
While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation, ... With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.
combined employee growth health inability job prices raise reason selling single
When combined with the run-up in employee health-care costs, ... the inability to raise selling prices is the single most important reason that job growth has been lagging so much during this recovery.
continue fed inflation interest paid prices raise running
The prices paid is still way up there, inflation is still running a little hot, enough that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.
affect beautiful consumers gasoline higher market prices stock weather
It (consumer sentiment) was a little higher than expected, but the stock market has come back, gasoline prices have come down, and the weather has been beautiful and that has to affect consumers somewhat.
baby dunk energy likely move prices raise rates remain slam
As long as energy prices remain high, they're likely to move in baby steps. I just don't think it's a slam dunk that they raise rates in December.
earlier gas prices rise usual
I think we'll see gas prices rise earlier than usual and faster.
appreciation demand far less likely moving overall price saw supply
Overall supply and demand are moving into much better balance. With that, we're likely to see far less price appreciation than we saw in 2005.
accelerate annual below continue core exception fed few gradually interest means months next past percent policy pressures price pushing rate recent rose slightly three trends unlikely
Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.
belief bleed core energy eventually people prices quarter seen
People keep asking, 'How can it be that we haven't seen energy prices bleed over into the core?' ... Our belief is that it will eventually show up in the core CPI, but it may not show up in 2005. It may be in first quarter of 2006.
behavior change changes consumers eat effect felt further gasoline gradually high months prices recent seen stay
High gasoline prices gradually eat away at income. The effect isn't felt all at once. We have seen consumers change their behavior in recent months and there should be further changes if prices stay at these levels.