Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
again bursting companies economy economy-and-economics finally growing market moved overall past stock tech year
Overall this year the economy moved past the bursting of the stock market bubble. Tech companies finally started growing again and that's really benefited the Triangle.
appreciation demand far less likely moving overall price saw supply
Overall supply and demand are moving into much better balance. With that, we're likely to see far less price appreciation than we saw in 2005.
care existing focus mediocre opening overall pie retailers sales securities slice steal stores successful
They're only mediocre if you're a securities analyst, not if you're a real person, ... The successful retailers are opening stores like mad. That may steal sales from existing stores of their own as well as other retailers. But the overall pie is growing. I'm an economist; I focus on the pie, I don't care how they slice it.
accounts motor overall percent rebound retail rise sales vehicle
A rebound in motor vehicle sales accounts for much of December's 0.7 percent rise in overall retail sales and is also responsible for much of November's upward revision.
based concern current economists energy food increase inflation labor overall raising recent source swings tight wage workers
Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices. However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI.
based concern current economists energy food increase inflation labor overall raising recent source swings tight wage workers
Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices, ... However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI.
coming damn economic interest percent plenty rates reports respond weak zero
We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.
along badly business came economy economy-and-economics inventory numbers realizing result revised saw second slightly trade weaker weakness week wider zero
We're just now realizing how badly off the economy was in the second quarter, ... The wider trade gap, along with the weakness we saw in the business inventory numbers that came out this week and weaker construction spending, will probably result in a second-quarter revised GDP number that will be zero or even slightly negative. It will be an eye-opening number, but it's no more worrisome than what we've seen.
both created jobs quality quantity seeing
We're seeing both the quantity and quality of the jobs being created improving.
fed funds higher knows manual neutral operating rate says
There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent,
account adjustment came causes data employment gauge hard hiring holiday later might november numbers problem thanksgiving wider year
The problem with the November employment numbers is hiring for the holiday season. It's hard to get a gauge of what it's going to be. They do a seasonal adjustment to the number to account for that, but the seasonal adjustment causes wider swings. And this year Thanksgiving came later in the month, so hiring might have started after the November data was collected.
accelerate annual below continue core exception fed few gradually interest means months next past percent policy pressures price pushing rate recent rose slightly three trends unlikely
Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.
markets rational
Markets are rational and forward-looking. However, they can also be wrong.
economy either growth happening job labor losing means momentum side stronger touch
It either means the economy is losing momentum or the (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is losing touch what's actually happening in the economy. Right now I don't know what side to come down on. My sense is that job growth has been stronger than reported.