Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
behind confidence consumer effects expect further gas higher holiday jump katrina lead prices season shopping
We expect a big jump in consumer confidence now that the effects of Katrina and higher gas prices are further behind us. Higher confidence will lead to a better-than-expected holiday shopping season as well.
consumers economy-and-economics fairly holiday season worried
Consumers are fairly worried about the economy. ... I think the holiday season is going to be ho-hum,
account adjustment came causes data employment gauge hard hiring holiday later might november numbers problem thanksgiving wider year
The problem with the November employment numbers is hiring for the holiday season. It's hard to get a gauge of what it's going to be. They do a seasonal adjustment to the number to account for that, but the seasonal adjustment causes wider swings. And this year Thanksgiving came later in the month, so hiring might have started after the November data was collected.
abroad deficit demand economy economy-and-economics happen holiday next optimistic order reasonably retailers season shopping starting strong time trade turn until
Demand in the U.S. economy is reasonably strong and retailers are probably optimistic about the holiday shopping season so they are starting to order from abroad now. The trade deficit is going to take some time to turn around. It may not happen until next year.
fairly healthy home level percent sales year
When all is said and done, we should still have a fairly healthy level of new home sales this year -- probably up 4 to 5 percent for the year.
attracted greater portion
The same thing that has attracted retirees over the years is still there: the weather. You can do more things for a greater portion of the year.
coming expected gain job likely state states
The state is expected to gain 150,000 new residents this year, with two-thirds of the adults likely coming from other states for job opportunities.
awful create labor market mess tight
It would create an awful mess in Florida, where the labor market is tight by any definition.
anecdotal anywhere common common-sense core evidence inflation near
Anecdotal evidence and common sense suggests that core inflation has not been anywhere near this tame.
cause damage flood insurance lack likely recovery tend
Flood damage does not tend to be as insured. The lack of insurance is likely to cause the recovery to be delayed,
above below came gas higher huge interest knock market number prices rates relief rising sign
There was a huge sign of relief when the number came in above 100, and that's why the market rallied, ... There was a thought that the combination of rising interest rates and higher gas prices would knock it below 100.
serious view
We do not view this as anything more serious than a much-needed correction.
america corporate downside eating equivalent far growth healthier hiring means roughly stomach stronger tough
Corporate America is on the mend. The only downside of stronger productivity growth is that it means hiring is lagging. As far as downsides go, this is roughly the equivalent of eating your broccoli. It may be tough to stomach at first, but it makes you stronger and healthier in the long run.
assets boomer companies demand enormous funds insurance match pension
There's just such an enormous demand from pension funds and insurance companies to match their assets with the liabilities of the boomer generation.