Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
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There was a huge sign of relief when the number came in above 100, and that's why the market rallied, ... There was a thought that the combination of rising interest rates and higher gas prices would knock it below 100.
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We expect a big jump in consumer confidence now that the effects of Katrina and higher gas prices are further behind us. Higher confidence will lead to a better-than-expected holiday shopping season as well.
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While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation, ... With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.
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it's somewhat surprising how resilient the economy has been, despite higher energy prices.
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There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent,
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It (consumer sentiment) was a little higher than expected, but the stock market has come back, gasoline prices have come down, and the weather has been beautiful and that has to affect consumers somewhat.
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A very high proportion of that job growth is occurring in high-paying professions. This is a demand-driven market and demand vastly exceeds supply.
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High gasoline prices gradually eat away at income. The effect isn't felt all at once. We have seen consumers change their behavior in recent months and there should be further changes if prices stay at these levels.
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The Fed has to conduct a bit of a high wire act. If rates were to rise quickly that would put part of the economic expansion at risk, particularly residential construction and commercial development.
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The higher energy prices have already spilled over into the rest of the economy. But it probably will not cause major problems for the economy.
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The impact of stronger job growth more than overcomes the impact of higher mortgage rates. It doesn't mean we'll have a month like March every month. But home sales should remain strong even with mortgage rates about a percentage point above the low point.
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When all is said and done, we should still have a fairly healthy level of new home sales this year -- probably up 4 to 5 percent for the year.
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The same thing that has attracted retirees over the years is still there: the weather. You can do more things for a greater portion of the year.
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The state is expected to gain 150,000 new residents this year, with two-thirds of the adults likely coming from other states for job opportunities.