Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
continues core fed finished further goods increases likely modest price prices production relatively series signs tops until
While core finished goods are still relatively tame, there are signs that price increases are accelerating further back in the production pipeline, ... Typically the Fed continues tightening until this series tops out. But with prices up only modestly, they will likely continue to make only modest adjustments.
good income news personal report
Today's personal income report had very good news on inflation.
damage early energy good national
It's pretty early to have a good idea of what damage there is in the region. It is the damage to the energy infrastructure that is important to the national economy.
fed good interest nearly raising run
We've had a pretty good run here in anticipation that the Fed is nearly done raising interest rates.
clearly economic gaining good
This is a really good story from an economic standpoint. Manufacturing is clearly gaining momentum.
believe continue deflation fairly goods odds outright pricing producers remain
While goods producers continue to have little to no pricing power, we still believe the odds of outright deflation remain fairly low.
apartment area buildings built centers country damages extended given good reach shopping tested unusually wet worse
Given that it's going to reach such an extended area and that it will be an unusually wet storm, damages are going to be a lot worse than $1 billion. So many homes, apartment buildings and shopping centers have been built in this part of the country that haven't been tested by a big storm. Now we're going to see just how good this construction has been.
coming damn economic interest percent plenty rates reports respond weak zero
We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.
along badly business came economy economy-and-economics inventory numbers realizing result revised saw second slightly trade weaker weakness week wider zero
We're just now realizing how badly off the economy was in the second quarter, ... The wider trade gap, along with the weakness we saw in the business inventory numbers that came out this week and weaker construction spending, will probably result in a second-quarter revised GDP number that will be zero or even slightly negative. It will be an eye-opening number, but it's no more worrisome than what we've seen.
both created jobs quality quantity seeing
We're seeing both the quantity and quality of the jobs being created improving.
fed funds higher knows manual neutral operating rate says
There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent,
account adjustment came causes data employment gauge hard hiring holiday later might november numbers problem thanksgiving wider year
The problem with the November employment numbers is hiring for the holiday season. It's hard to get a gauge of what it's going to be. They do a seasonal adjustment to the number to account for that, but the seasonal adjustment causes wider swings. And this year Thanksgiving came later in the month, so hiring might have started after the November data was collected.
again bursting companies economy economy-and-economics finally growing market moved overall past stock tech year
Overall this year the economy moved past the bursting of the stock market bubble. Tech companies finally started growing again and that's really benefited the Triangle.
appreciation demand far less likely moving overall price saw supply
Overall supply and demand are moving into much better balance. With that, we're likely to see far less price appreciation than we saw in 2005.