Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
earlier gas prices rise usual
I think we'll see gas prices rise earlier than usual and faster.
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We expect a big jump in consumer confidence now that the effects of Katrina and higher gas prices are further behind us. Higher confidence will lead to a better-than-expected holiday shopping season as well.
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There was a huge sign of relief when the number came in above 100, and that's why the market rallied, ... There was a thought that the combination of rising interest rates and higher gas prices would knock it below 100.
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While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation, ... With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.
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It (consumer sentiment) was a little higher than expected, but the stock market has come back, gasoline prices have come down, and the weather has been beautiful and that has to affect consumers somewhat.
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I don't know if the gas prices and interest rates will knock consumer confidence down in coming months, ... I think they're more likely to hold it where it is now, which is good, but not great.
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High gasoline prices gradually eat away at income. The effect isn't felt all at once. We have seen consumers change their behavior in recent months and there should be further changes if prices stay at these levels.
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We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.
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We're just now realizing how badly off the economy was in the second quarter, ... The wider trade gap, along with the weakness we saw in the business inventory numbers that came out this week and weaker construction spending, will probably result in a second-quarter revised GDP number that will be zero or even slightly negative. It will be an eye-opening number, but it's no more worrisome than what we've seen.
both created jobs quality quantity seeing
We're seeing both the quantity and quality of the jobs being created improving.
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There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent,
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The problem with the November employment numbers is hiring for the holiday season. It's hard to get a gauge of what it's going to be. They do a seasonal adjustment to the number to account for that, but the seasonal adjustment causes wider swings. And this year Thanksgiving came later in the month, so hiring might have started after the November data was collected.
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Overall this year the economy moved past the bursting of the stock market bubble. Tech companies finally started growing again and that's really benefited the Triangle.
appreciation demand far less likely moving overall price saw supply
Overall supply and demand are moving into much better balance. With that, we're likely to see far less price appreciation than we saw in 2005.