Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
bit close fear fed housing market maybe slowing takes today yesterday
Yesterday there was a little bit of a fear that maybe the housing market is not slowing down much and that the Fed has to do a little bit more, and today it takes some of that fear back out. They are really close to being done.
continues core fed finished further goods increases likely modest price prices production relatively series signs tops until
While core finished goods are still relatively tame, there are signs that price increases are accelerating further back in the production pipeline, ... Typically the Fed continues tightening until this series tops out. But with prices up only modestly, they will likely continue to make only modest adjustments.
difficult fed follows leave meet rates strength unchanged
If this kind of strength follows through to other reports, it will become very difficult for the Fed to leave rates unchanged when they meet on Aug. 22nd,
budget deficit federal government increases interest means rates tax
When the federal government increases the budget deficit it increases interest rates on everybody, so it is like a tax increase on borrowing. What that means is that mortgages will be more expensive.
concern employment fed greenspan january markets spell stance
There is some concern that we could see a much more hawkish stance from the Fed and that Greenspan may spell out a little more tightening than the markets had priced after the January employment number.
fed good interest nearly raising run
We've had a pretty good run here in anticipation that the Fed is nearly done raising interest rates.
along beginning case fed gotten looks recession successful
It's beginning to look like the Fed was right all along ... and that the case for a recession has gotten a lot weaker. It looks like we're going to have a successful bumpy landing.
continue fed inflation interest paid prices raise running
The prices paid is still way up there, inflation is still running a little hot, enough that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.
fed funds higher knows manual neutral operating rate says
There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent,
abruptly afterwards ahead came chicago fed late month quite soon weakness
Back in late 2000 the Chicago PMI weakened a month ahead of the ISM survey. The weakness then also came quite unexpectedly and soon afterwards the Fed abruptly reversed course,
fed influence markets mouth open supposed
The way the Fed is supposed to influence markets is through an open market policy, but they will also use the open mouth policy,
boost businesses costs energy fed growth hiking hire hiring interest labor looks markets output rates recent reluctant
The most recent acceleration in productivity growth looks like it was cyclically driven, ... Even with output soaring, many businesses were reluctant to boost hiring because the Fed was hiking interest rates and energy costs were surging. Even if businesses wanted to hire more workers, many could not because the labor markets were so tight.
cut data fed folks interest jump move next quick sign sure talk
Some folks will be quick to jump on this morning's data as a sure sign that the next move by the Fed will be to cut interest rates. Such talk is still way too premature.
cause coming conclude economic expected fed heels inflation interest june leave news rates recent unchanged weaker
Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting, ... It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.