Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
fed funds higher knows manual neutral operating rate says
There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent,
accelerate annual below continue core exception fed few gradually interest means months next past percent policy pressures price pushing rate recent rose slightly three trends unlikely
Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.
continues core fed finished further goods increases likely modest price prices production relatively series signs tops until
While core finished goods are still relatively tame, there are signs that price increases are accelerating further back in the production pipeline, ... Typically the Fed continues tightening until this series tops out. But with prices up only modestly, they will likely continue to make only modest adjustments.
bit close fear fed housing market maybe slowing takes today yesterday
Yesterday there was a little bit of a fear that maybe the housing market is not slowing down much and that the Fed has to do a little bit more, and today it takes some of that fear back out. They are really close to being done.
breathing fed gives interest room
It gives the Fed a little more breathing room on interest rates, that's the most I can say.
bit commercial conduct economic expansion fed high quickly rates rise wire
The Fed has to conduct a bit of a high wire act. If rates were to rise quickly that would put part of the economic expansion at risk, particularly residential construction and commercial development.
federal larger money response spent
The federal response has been much larger than we thought it would be, ... And the money is being spent much more quickly.
august basis beyond both cut fed october points rates
The Fed will probably cut rates in both August and October by 25 basis points (a quarter-percentage point) each. We really don't know what they will do beyond that.
cost drive economy employment federal full government next progress spend visible whatever
The federal government is going to spend whatever they need to, to make some visible progress before next year's mid-term elections, ... And what that's going to do to an economy that's already at full employment is drive up the cost of cement, drive up the cost of steel, drive up the cost of labor.
core fed inflation pick wait
The Fed can't wait for core inflation to pick up before they act,
along beginning case fed gotten looks recession successful
It's beginning to look like the Fed was right all along ... and that the case for a recession has gotten a lot weaker. It looks like we're going to have a successful bumpy landing.
fed good interest nearly raising run
We've had a pretty good run here in anticipation that the Fed is nearly done raising interest rates.
concern employment fed greenspan january markets spell stance
There is some concern that we could see a much more hawkish stance from the Fed and that Greenspan may spell out a little more tightening than the markets had priced after the January employment number.
fed influence markets mouth open supposed
The way the Fed is supposed to influence markets is through an open market policy, but they will also use the open mouth policy,