Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
companies fewer finding growth incredible maintain technology ways
Companies have been able to maintain incredible productivity growth for a low-growth economy. It does look like firms are finding ways to use technology and make do with fewer workers.
companies less paying
Companies are paying more compensation and getting less productivity growth.
capacity commodity disruption economy economy-and-economics factors growth higher hurricane local minor national potential productive reduced relatively shipping storms threaten
The national economy usually weathers these storms with relatively minor damage. Second, the hurricane is a 'supply shock' -- a disruption to productive potential -- not a 'demand shock.' The same factors that threaten growth -- higher commodity prices, shipping bottlenecks, reduced local productive capacity -- also threaten inflation.
companies company cut economy harder hours job laying natural number people per pull quickly reduce
The one thing that companies can do quickly without laying people off is reduce the number of hours per week; as the economy slows, that's the natural place for a company to cut back. It's a little harder to pull back quickly on job hiring.
growth hard inflation low number strong
This is a feel-good report. When you get a strong growth number and a low inflation number, it's hard to get a better combination than that for the economy.
approach changing figure impossible language policy problem
This has been a fundamental problem with the Fed's whole approach to policy making, ... By changing their language so frequently, they make it impossible to figure out what they're doing.
almost convince inflation last straw
I think that (high inflation readings) would be almost the last straw to convince the Fed.
bills both economy hitting immediate impact moderate oil process recent shock slowing spending though value waiting winter
I think the economy is already in the process of slowing to a more moderate pace. Oil has both an immediate impact on spending and lagging impacts. Even though oil has stabilized in recent weeks, we still have to play out effects. We're still waiting for the shock value of the winter heating bills hitting people.
data dictate economy further gradual inflation markets risks step stop strong towards
It is gradual step towards a little more flexibility. Inflation, the economy and the markets will dictate how much further they go. They say the economy is strong and that inflation risks are tilted a little to the upside. There is nothing yet in the data that will stop the Fed.
corporate force growth holding line matter profit profits recent seen slow stay work workers
I think we know corporate profit growth can't stay at the rate we've seen in recent quarters. They (employers) have been squeezing the work force pretty aggressively, squeezing productivity out of workers and holding the line on wages. It's a matter of how much corporate profits slow down.
almost changed commentary fed identical officials people prior sound
I think what people will see is that commentary from Fed officials will sound almost identical to their commentary prior to this meeting. Nothing's really changed at the Fed.
adds case cautious demanding generally higher investors returns risk taking view
It generally just adds to the case for investors taking a little more cautious view on risk and demanding higher returns on investments.
against central err feeling restraint side
Our feeling is that because you have a new central banker, they are going to want to err on the side of restraint against inflation.
adjusted bring consumer impact rates rising slowing spending tremendous
Rising rates could have a tremendous impact on slowing consumer spending. Consumer spending has been about 6 percent, when adjusted for inflation. Rising rates could bring it down to 2 or 3 percent.