Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
data economy few lost momentum months outcome positive time weak weeks
Even with a positive outcome in the war, the economy is going to have lost a lot of momentum by the time it's over. We're not going to see a few weeks of weak data -- we'll see a few months of weak data.
coming eventually housing impact seeds slow
Eventually that will slow down the U.S. consumer. We've got the seeds of a slowdown coming out of the housing market, but it hasn't really had that much impact yet on the economy.
accident along deficit factor gradual gradually lingering risk sitting trade
That's the big lingering risk factor sitting out there on the horizon. Will we have a gradual adjustment, where the trade deficit gradually improves, or will we have an accident along the way?
That's about the right feel for the economy,
action dangerous early fed fragile hiking initial interest stage thinking
It's much too early for the Fed to be thinking about hiking interest rates. It would be a very dangerous action on their part in this fragile initial stage of the recovery.
concern people voting
They're voting with their wallets and they're spending. There's always a concern that people just don't like what they're seeing, but they are still buying.
growth percent
A lot of things have to go right even to get 2.3 percent growth for the year,
across auto collapse component growth incentives knew major months number rest row sales single stop weak
We knew we would have a very weak number because of a collapse in auto sales after two big months in a row and the incentives kind of stop working ... But if you look at the rest of the report, every single major component was up. It was very broad-based growth across many components.
benefits consumers economic job labor market reasons recovery spend sustain
Ultimately, for the economic recovery to sustain itself, we have to see the labor market improve. As the tax-cut benefits fade, consumers will look for more fundamental reasons to spend money, and there will have to be some job growth.
best confidence corporate economy evidence gaining looking news side
What we're looking for is evidence of the corporate side of the economy gaining confidence and making real commitments in its own spending. There, I'd say the news is at best mixed,
aggregate attention clearly creation equity fed focus focused stock wealth
Clearly the new focus of Fed attention is the stock market. The Fed is not focused on many of the indicators equity analysts emphasize. Instead, the Fed's focus is on aggregate wealth creation in the market.
aggregate attention clearly creation equity fed focus focused stock wealth
Clearly the new focus of Fed attention is the stock market, ... The Fed is not focused on many of the indicators equity analysts emphasize. Instead, the Fed's focus is on aggregate wealth creation in the market.
clearly economy economy-and-economics inflation momentum plenty risk
Clearly the economy still has plenty of momentum with a little hint of inflation risk in the background.
america budgets corporate equipment increase increasing keeps moderate neck puts recovery reluctant slow weight
Clearly, Corporate America is still in hunker-down mode, reluctant to increase budgets for equipment and slow about increasing employment, ... That puts a weight around the neck of the recovery and keeps it at a moderate pace.