Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
below relief sigh whisper
Payrolls were well below the whisper number, so there's been a big sigh of relief in the market,
fed market
If the Fed isn't happy, the market isn't happy.
background both bush business economic fed history itself list people pick seem
There is a history both in appointments under the Bush administration and the Fed chairmanship itself of people off the list being picked. Bush does seem to have a proclivity to pick people with a more business background for his economic positions.
carry consumer economy financial improvement labor looks market terms trying view whether worries
We've been trying to see whether the improvement of the economy and financial market will carry the day in terms of consumer confidence, or if worries about labor will dominate. It looks like the 'glass-half-full' view is winning.
benefits lower tax
That basically, in my mind, cancels out the benefits of the lower tax rates,
both giving household payroll quarter rule survey thumb weight
My rule of thumb is to look at both the household and payroll surveys together, giving three-quarters weight to the payroll survey and one quarter to the household survey.
aggregate attention clearly creation equity fed focus focused stock wealth
Clearly the new focus of Fed attention is the stock market. The Fed is not focused on many of the indicators equity analysts emphasize. Instead, the Fed's focus is on aggregate wealth creation in the market.
aggregate attention clearly creation equity fed focus focused stock wealth
Clearly the new focus of Fed attention is the stock market, ... The Fed is not focused on many of the indicators equity analysts emphasize. Instead, the Fed's focus is on aggregate wealth creation in the market.
clearly economy economy-and-economics inflation momentum plenty risk
Clearly the economy still has plenty of momentum with a little hint of inflation risk in the background.
america budgets corporate equipment increase increasing keeps moderate neck puts recovery reluctant slow weight
Clearly, Corporate America is still in hunker-down mode, reluctant to increase budgets for equipment and slow about increasing employment, ... That puts a weight around the neck of the recovery and keeps it at a moderate pace.
fed inflation national worry
At the national level, the Fed has to worry about the inflation implications of the storm.
anywhere believe capital catalyst point recovery spending
As you look down the road, at some point you've got to believe there's a real recovery in capital spending on the way. But I don't see the catalyst anywhere in sight.
america boost corporate growth job labor means move output picking serious slow wait whatever
The labor market's going to have a long, slow climb. Corporate America is going to use whatever means it can to boost output without hiring. They're going to wait and wait for confirmation that growth is really picking up before they move into serious job hiring.
bark fed good saying sound tested
The Fed is saying that 'we're being tested here, we're being tested on our anti-inflation credibility,' ... They need to sound tough. They need a pretty good bark to go with their bite.