Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
economy except fed future hike learned near policy rates ready
In total, we learned very little about the future of the economy or Fed policy except that the Fed is not ready to hike rates in the very near future.
breakdown conditions current decrease expect final increase offset reading similar
In the preliminary reading an increase in the index of current conditions was offset by a decrease in the expectations index. We expect a similar breakdown in the final survey.
alone consumer damaged higher oil people prices shocks tax worrying
In the big oil shocks that really damaged the economy, the tax on the consumer was many times more than that, but that alone wasn't enough. You also had to have people worrying that prices were going higher forever.
chicago national number predictor terms
In terms of being a predictor for the national index, the Chicago number has a spotty record.
close conditions financial good growth looking moving
Because growth is looking good and financial conditions are good, they'll keep moving up. But they're close to the end.
early interest rates recovery rising talking
By talking about interest rates rising again, you can precipitate them rising too early in a recovery -- that's why he shouldn't be talking about it.
blank budget business downside federal government optimistic planning worry
If you're doing budget planning in business, you budget for the downside risks, not for the most optimistic scenario. But the federal government doesn't have to worry too much -- it's the only business that has a blank check.
delays housing impact might prices tend turn whatever
Housing prices tend to turn very slowly, and that delays whatever impact they might have on the economy.
data domestic gross number pieces quarter sector services worst
We think the ISM services number is one of the worst monthly pieces of data there are. On a month-to-month basis, it has no correlation with service sector employment, and on a quarter to quarter basis, it has no correlation with service sector gross domestic product.
bad banking capacity effects estate excess feeble hangover industry reason recovery thrift
The reason the recovery was so feeble was you still had these hangover effects from the real estate and banking sectors, ... Real estate was still reeling from excess capacity and the whole thrift industry had been decimated by bad loans.
budgets capital cut demand dramatic point quite spending
Firms have cut back on their capital spending budgets to the point where some of them are not even replacing worn-out equipment. It's been quite a dramatic pullback, and in some sense there's some pent-up demand out there for capital equipment.
affect consume demand economy-and-economics effect electrical industrial natural obvious output people places utility
But the obvious effect is on utility consumption, which will affect industrial output in the economy. People consume more electricity, that places more demand on natural gas, coal, power, and electrical systems.
automatic bunch chairman democratic discussion greenspan less normal respect turn
When you get a new chairman in place you're going to have a more democratic and less predictable, less transparent Fed. The new chairman won't get the same automatic respect Greenspan has. It's not that (central bankers) will turn into a bunch of farm-yard animals, but there will be a more normal discussion going on.
economy keeps major recession war
We're not going to be in a recession if the economy reverses quickly. But if the war keeps going on, recession is a major risk.