Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
That's about the right feel for the economy,
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It's much too early for the Fed to be thinking about hiking interest rates. It would be a very dangerous action on their part in this fragile initial stage of the recovery.
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It's not as friendly as some of the other inflation numbers, but it's just one indicator. We have no inflation warning signals from any of the other major inflation indicators.
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It's not a question of a sudden explosion in prices. It's more an erosion of the low-inflation psychology.
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Everyone is all zeroed in on the consumer now, but the truth is that the consumer isn't the driver now. Confidence is picking up, but still at average levels. Wage growth is slow and the bulk of the tax cut is already in place. Finally, with all the debt people have taken out over the past several years the burden of paying monthly bills is leaving less for discretionary spending.
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The bond market went into this report looking for disaster. I think there's a sense of relief in the bond market.
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They'll wait to see how Christmas shapes up, and if it's weak, they'll give another rate cut in January.
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They keep fiddling with the language, and the general tone of the directive keeps getting a little less dovish. Being 'patient' sounds a little less like they're keeping rates on hold than a 'considerable period' -- though you'd need to study a dictionary closely to figure that out.
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There's this alternative scenario where the financial crisis starts to bleed into the economy in a major way,
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At every stage in the past three years, employment has disappointed relative to overall activity. It's a chronic issue, and there's been a tendency for economists to hope this will finally be the month when improvement occurs. But I have no reason to believe it will.
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It suggests moderate growth in the year ahead, but I don't think there's much risk of a 'double-dip' recession.
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It's true there's been a shift of income distribution, with a lot of income gains accruing to upper income individuals. The labor market is paying a bigger and bigger premium for being well educated, ... At the other end of the distribution, if you look at Joe Six-Pack, you've seen a big decline in big paying, low skill jobs in manufacturing.
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The number itself wasn't very surprising, ... (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan's comments last week that the trade gap might start getting smaller raised attention and some hopes. But I didn't agree with him about that.
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It's the toughest weight class in the state, by far. Everyone here is so tough. There are just some studs in this weight class, so it's going to be the best man who comes through with the title.