Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
aspects breathed category damage further happened initially market missed oil people pressure relief seeing sigh starting storm
What happened is that initially the market breathed a sigh of relief when the storm was downgraded to a Category 4 and missed New Orleans, ... they are starting to look at the damage more seriously. We are seeing further upward pressure on oil prices. People are starting to think about the many aspects of the destruction here.
asian banks central current dollar downward helping investors large low market pile pressure prop relative shy start support trading treasury yields
This large inflow is an important prop for the Treasury market, helping keep yields in their current low trading range. Not only is the inflow large relative to new Treasury supply, it may also help stabilize the market when it comes under pressure. If investors start to shy away from the U.S. market, the dollar comes under downward pressure and the Asian central banks pile in to support the U.S. market.
ahead almost consumer continue effects energy pressure slow somewhat spending vulnerable year
The consumer is already somewhat vulnerable in the year ahead as the tax-cut effects fade. If we continue to see pressure from energy prices, consumer spending is almost sure to slow down some.
budget china congress course gradual growth happen ideal less none percent pressure three works
In an ideal world, three simultaneous gradual adjustments would happen. The U.S. eliminates the budget deficit, China revalues by 30 percent and China works to rebalance growth more to consumption and less to exports. Of course none of this will happen and the pressure for protectionism from Congress grows.
both growth inflation market numbers pressure reality sleep
The market is getting lulled into sleep here. In reality we think that both the inflation numbers and the growth numbers will keep the pressure on the Fed.
attitude economy happened screw state trying
What's happened between now and then is that we've accomplished everything we've set out to achieve, ... Then they were trying to get the economy to the state it is in now, so the attitude now is, 'lets not screw anything up.'
aggregate along bias break consumer demand expect fed few growth inflation leave prices rates remains signs statements upside vote
With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
benign inflation remain
We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.
drop fed language number reasons
We see a number of reasons for the Fed to drop its 'measured pace' language.
claims continued people rate sign work
These continued claims are a sign the unemployment rate is still on an upward trajectory. There are still a lot of people out of work out there.
believe fallout fed fixed greater income likely officials signal
Fed officials ... likely anticipated some fallout in fixed income markets, ... We believe ... that Fed officials wanted to signal a greater probability of tightening in 2004 than had been priced into markets.
becoming belongs biggest boom center economic engine estate front future goes growth hot housing market page reason reports research risk topic
Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.
coming growth next wage
We are going to get some follow-through, some hiring, but it will be slow. I don't see wage growth coming back in the next year.
challenger device healthy number telling useful
Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs. The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.