Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
drop fed language number reasons
We see a number of reasons for the Fed to drop its 'measured pace' language.
match matter
This was the big match to get. You just want to get to (today), no matter what it takes.
believe fallout fed fixed greater income likely officials signal
Fed officials ... likely anticipated some fallout in fixed income markets, ... We believe ... that Fed officials wanted to signal a greater probability of tightening in 2004 than had been priced into markets.
both confidence fed financial greater less market means retirement risk somewhat
While the Fed is more than one person, Mr. Greenspan's retirement means less confidence in the Fed, with somewhat greater risk of both financial market instability and inflation.
across based fourth nice rebound seeing strength
You are seeing a nice rebound from the hurricane-distorted fourth quarter, with strength broadly based across the economy.
coming growth next wage
We are going to get some follow-through, some hiring, but it will be slow. I don't see wage growth coming back in the next year.
challenger device healthy number telling useful
Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs. The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
challenger device healthy number telling useful
Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs, ... The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
believe extended fed inflation neutral side stay tight
With inflation trending up, we believe the Fed will want to stay on the tight side of neutral for an extended period.
aspects breathed category damage further happened initially market missed oil people pressure relief seeing sigh starting storm
What happened is that initially the market breathed a sigh of relief when the storm was downgraded to a Category 4 and missed New Orleans, ... they are starting to look at the damage more seriously. We are seeing further upward pressure on oil prices. People are starting to think about the many aspects of the destruction here.
lined
This is one of the very-easy-to-interpret reports. In this one, everything lined up like the planets.
bit both calling china deficit pointing policy poor pot reflects sides
The U.S. pointing to China is a bit like the pot calling the kettle black. The deficit with China reflects poor policy on both sides of the Pacific.
growth hard inflation low number strong
This is a feel-good report. When you get a strong growth number and a low inflation number, it's hard to get a better combination than that for the economy.
approach changing figure impossible language policy problem
This has been a fundamental problem with the Fed's whole approach to policy making, ... By changing their language so frequently, they make it impossible to figure out what they're doing.