Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
data domestic gross number pieces quarter sector services worst
We think the ISM services number is one of the worst monthly pieces of data there are. On a month-to-month basis, it has no correlation with service sector employment, and on a quarter to quarter basis, it has no correlation with service sector gross domestic product.
capacity concerned economic excess fed growth needed percent quarter rid third
We needed 20 percent economic growth in the third quarter to get rid of all of the excess capacity in the economy. The Fed is still going to be concerned about disinflation.
both giving household payroll quarter rule survey thumb weight
My rule of thumb is to look at both the household and payroll surveys together, giving three-quarters weight to the payroll survey and one quarter to the household survey.
best economic pickup profits quarter spot sweet terms third
The third quarter was the sweet spot for profits from an economic perspective. You had this pickup in growth, but you didn't have the pickup in costs. In terms of growth, this is the best quarter we're going to see.
best cuts economy maintain move promise quarter rate remains
The best tack is to move by a quarter point, with the promise that there will be more cuts to come if the economy remains weak. You can't maintain that promise with big bulky rate cuts.
fed looking looks percent quarter since subtract twice
You probably want to subtract about two-tenths of a percent from first-quarter GDP growth. But that's looking like very old history, with the Fed having eased twice since the first quarter. From the market's perspective, you feel like you're in a different world already. The first quarter looks very distant, indeed.
automatic bunch chairman democratic discussion greenspan less normal respect turn
When you get a new chairman in place you're going to have a more democratic and less predictable, less transparent Fed. The new chairman won't get the same automatic respect Greenspan has. It's not that (central bankers) will turn into a bunch of farm-yard animals, but there will be a more normal discussion going on.
match matter
This was the big match to get. You just want to get to (today), no matter what it takes.
believe extended fed inflation neutral side stay tight
With inflation trending up, we believe the Fed will want to stay on the tight side of neutral for an extended period.
benign inflation remain
We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.
drop fed language number reasons
We see a number of reasons for the Fed to drop its 'measured pace' language.
challenger device healthy number telling useful
Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs. The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
challenger device healthy number telling useful
Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs, ... The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
both confidence fed financial greater less market means retirement risk somewhat
While the Fed is more than one person, Mr. Greenspan's retirement means less confidence in the Fed, with somewhat greater risk of both financial market instability and inflation.