Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
applying believe labor number people sure
I'm not sure I believe the Labor Department. On Friday, there must have been a below-normal number of people applying for benefits.
coming growth job point rate rise sure
If job growth is just 50,000 a month, you can be sure that the unemployment rate is going to rise at some point in the coming months.
coming consumer likely slow spending
It's very likely consumer spending will slow down significantly in coming months.
fed inflation national worry
At the national level, the Fed has to worry about the inflation implications of the storm.
anywhere believe capital catalyst point recovery spending
As you look down the road, at some point you've got to believe there's a real recovery in capital spending on the way. But I don't see the catalyst anywhere in sight.
america boost corporate growth job labor means move output picking serious slow wait whatever
The labor market's going to have a long, slow climb. Corporate America is going to use whatever means it can to boost output without hiring. They're going to wait and wait for confirmation that growth is really picking up before they move into serious job hiring.
bark fed good saying sound tested
The Fed is saying that 'we're being tested here, we're being tested on our anti-inflation credibility,' ... They need to sound tough. They need a pretty good bark to go with their bite.
approach cautious consumer fed handle higher interest medicine nurtured patient recovery shock worried
The Fed is going to take a cautious approach (because) they're worried about how the consumer will handle higher interest rates, ... We've had recovery nurtured on super-low interest rates. They don't want to shock the patient by withdrawing the medicine too quickly.
bias couple easy fed next terms
The Fed is going to have a bias to be very easy in terms of policy, not just in the next couple of months, but well into the future.
advance clarity clear early expect fed iraq march means meeting move news quite seems ugly
The Fed has made it clear that it will take quite ugly news to get them to move in advance of any clarity around the Iraq situation. That means the March 18 meeting seems too early to expect a cut.
christmas cut rate shapes wait
They'll wait to see how Christmas shapes up, and if it's weak, they'll give another rate cut in January.
attitude economy happened screw state trying
What's happened between now and then is that we've accomplished everything we've set out to achieve, ... Then they were trying to get the economy to the state it is in now, so the attitude now is, 'lets not screw anything up.'
aggregate along bias break consumer demand expect fed few growth inflation leave prices rates remains signs statements upside vote
With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
benign inflation remain
We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.