Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
across auto collapse component growth incentives knew major months number rest row sales single stop weak
We knew we would have a very weak number because of a collapse in auto sales after two big months in a row and the incentives kind of stop working ... But if you look at the rest of the report, every single major component was up. It was very broad-based growth across many components.
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Ultimately, for the economic recovery to sustain itself, we have to see the labor market improve. As the tax-cut benefits fade, consumers will look for more fundamental reasons to spend money, and there will have to be some job growth.
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Usually the federal government takes a much more limited role in natural disasters.
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Whoever is chosen, the new chairman will go through a proving period.
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We are obviously experiencing slower growth and the payroll numbers don't really reflect that yet, which is why they will be an important indicator. Companies have been cutting back the number of hours their workers put in and in some cases cutting back their workforce altogether, and that is what people will be looking for in the numbers.
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Our feeling is that because you have a new central banker, they are going to want to err on the side of restraint against inflation.
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People will wake up and realize the war on terror has just moved one step forward,
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We're not going to be in a recession if the economy reverses quickly. But if the war keeps going on, recession is a major risk.
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These continued claims are a sign the unemployment rate is still on an upward trajectory. There are still a lot of people out of work out there.
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The surplus creates an environment where there's a tremendous amount of saving being freed up for private investment every time the government pays down its debt, that frees funds to flow into private investments. That has created this strong growth economy that we have.
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The third quarter was the sweet spot for profits from an economic perspective. You had this pickup in growth, but you didn't have the pickup in costs. In terms of growth, this is the best quarter we're going to see.
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Housing prices tend to turn very slowly, and that delays whatever impact they might have on the economy.
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Because growth is looking good and financial conditions are good, they'll keep moving up. But they're close to the end.
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By talking about interest rates rising again, you can precipitate them rising too early in a recovery -- that's why he shouldn't be talking about it.