Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
basis chairman force open point rate term
You don't want to force the new chairman to open his term by having to make a a 50 basis point rate hike.
bond chronic economic global market potent risk
There's a chronic risk to the bond market from global economic recovery. Probably the most potent story is Japan.
asian banks central current dollar downward helping investors large low market pile pressure prop relative shy start support trading treasury yields
This large inflow is an important prop for the Treasury market, helping keep yields in their current low trading range. Not only is the inflow large relative to new Treasury supply, it may also help stabilize the market when it comes under pressure. If investors start to shy away from the U.S. market, the dollar comes under downward pressure and the Asian central banks pile in to support the U.S. market.
adds learn rookie
This kind of adds to the sense of a rookie in the institution. They are going to have to learn the ropes for a while before they are going to be influential.
balance happening improvement moves people radical talk trade
This is why people talk about radical moves down in the dollar. They just can't see an improvement of the trade balance happening any other way.
concern discount negative news noticeable people quickly reading
A negative reading would be a noticeable headline. Some people will quickly discount it, say it's old news, but it could reawaken concern about the economy.
economic economy hold hope looking month resolved stage war
Are the economic indicators looking like a recession? Absolutely. But you can still hold out hope that the war is resolved in a month or so and the economy can stage some kind of recovery.
apparently monetary policy shock taken value
Apparently the Fed's new policy of 'transparency' has taken the shock value out of monetary policy.
economy engines face growth healthy housing sector
This is a sector that should be one of the engines of growth and should keep the economy healthy in the face of the weakening housing market.
clean hurricane talking
This is a nice, clean post-Katrina read. You wouldn't know there'd been a hurricane by the way they're talking about the economy,
employment hints number strong
This is another of these little hints that we won't get a strong employment number on Friday.
lined
This is one of the very-easy-to-interpret reports. In this one, everything lined up like the planets.
bit both calling china deficit pointing policy poor pot reflects sides
The U.S. pointing to China is a bit like the pot calling the kettle black. The deficit with China reflects poor policy on both sides of the Pacific.
data economists feeling good strength until weight
Some economists give a lot of weight to these surveys, but my feeling is that a survey's only good until the real data come out. The surveys are exaggerating the strength of the manufacturing sector.