Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
bark fed good saying sound tested
The Fed is saying that 'we're being tested here, we're being tested on our anti-inflation credibility,' ... They need to sound tough. They need a pretty good bark to go with their bite.
approach cautious consumer fed handle higher interest medicine nurtured patient recovery shock worried
The Fed is going to take a cautious approach (because) they're worried about how the consumer will handle higher interest rates, ... We've had recovery nurtured on super-low interest rates. They don't want to shock the patient by withdrawing the medicine too quickly.
bias couple easy fed next terms
The Fed is going to have a bias to be very easy in terms of policy, not just in the next couple of months, but well into the future.
advance clarity clear early expect fed iraq march means meeting move news quite seems ugly
The Fed has made it clear that it will take quite ugly news to get them to move in advance of any clarity around the Iraq situation. That means the March 18 meeting seems too early to expect a cut.
cautious everybody line locked optimism risks
The Fed's kind of locked into this cautious optimism mode. Everybody there has the same line about how once geopolitical risks abate things will get better.
announced endgame monetary
The Fed's announced an endgame for monetary policy.
ahead almost consumer continue effects energy pressure slow somewhat spending vulnerable year
The consumer is already somewhat vulnerable in the year ahead as the tax-cut effects fade. If we continue to see pressure from energy prices, consumer spending is almost sure to slow down some.
applying believe labor number people sure
I'm not sure I believe the Labor Department. On Friday, there must have been a below-normal number of people applying for benefits.
blank budget business downside federal government optimistic planning worry
If you're doing budget planning in business, you budget for the downside risks, not for the most optimistic scenario. But the federal government doesn't have to worry too much -- it's the only business that has a blank check.
aggregate attention clearly creation equity fed focus focused stock wealth
Clearly the new focus of Fed attention is the stock market. The Fed is not focused on many of the indicators equity analysts emphasize. Instead, the Fed's focus is on aggregate wealth creation in the market.
aggregate attention clearly creation equity fed focus focused stock wealth
Clearly the new focus of Fed attention is the stock market, ... The Fed is not focused on many of the indicators equity analysts emphasize. Instead, the Fed's focus is on aggregate wealth creation in the market.
clearly economy economy-and-economics inflation momentum plenty risk
Clearly the economy still has plenty of momentum with a little hint of inflation risk in the background.
america budgets corporate equipment increase increasing keeps moderate neck puts recovery reluctant slow weight
Clearly, Corporate America is still in hunker-down mode, reluctant to increase budgets for equipment and slow about increasing employment, ... That puts a weight around the neck of the recovery and keeps it at a moderate pace.
coming growth job point rate rise sure
If job growth is just 50,000 a month, you can be sure that the unemployment rate is going to rise at some point in the coming months.