Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
budget china congress course gradual growth happen ideal less none percent pressure three works
In an ideal world, three simultaneous gradual adjustments would happen. The U.S. eliminates the budget deficit, China revalues by 30 percent and China works to rebalance growth more to consumption and less to exports. Of course none of this will happen and the pressure for protectionism from Congress grows.
average bills bulk burden confidence consumer cut debt driver growth leaving less past paying people picking several slow taken tax truth wage
Everyone is all zeroed in on the consumer now, but the truth is that the consumer isn't the driver now. Confidence is picking up, but still at average levels. Wage growth is slow and the bulk of the tax cut is already in place. Finally, with all the debt people have taken out over the past several years the burden of paying monthly bills is leaving less for discretionary spending.
coming growth job point rate rise sure
If job growth is just 50,000 a month, you can be sure that the unemployment rate is going to rise at some point in the coming months.
america boost corporate growth job labor means move output picking serious slow wait whatever
The labor market's going to have a long, slow climb. Corporate America is going to use whatever means it can to boost output without hiring. They're going to wait and wait for confirmation that growth is really picking up before they move into serious job hiring.
aggregate along bias break consumer demand expect fed few growth inflation leave prices rates remains signs statements upside vote
With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
coming growth next wage
We are going to get some follow-through, some hiring, but it will be slow. I don't see wage growth coming back in the next year.
growth hard inflation low number strong
This is a feel-good report. When you get a strong growth number and a low inflation number, it's hard to get a better combination than that for the economy.
capacity commodity disruption economy economy-and-economics factors growth higher hurricane local minor national potential productive reduced relatively shipping storms threaten
The national economy usually weathers these storms with relatively minor damage. Second, the hurricane is a 'supply shock' -- a disruption to productive potential -- not a 'demand shock.' The same factors that threaten growth -- higher commodity prices, shipping bottlenecks, reduced local productive capacity -- also threaten inflation.
companies fewer finding growth incredible maintain technology ways
Companies have been able to maintain incredible productivity growth for a low-growth economy. It does look like firms are finding ways to use technology and make do with fewer workers.
clearly consumer economy growth operating percent recovery talking
You're not talking about a full-blown business-cycle recovery here, which is something like 6 percent GDP growth for a year. To get that, you'll need the whole economy operating in full-growth mode, and clearly the consumer isn't.
bottom continued cost discipline flow growth spent wage
You're going to see continued cost discipline. So when growth comes it won't be spent on things like wage increases, but will flow to the bottom line.
economy engines face growth healthy housing sector
This is a sector that should be one of the engines of growth and should keep the economy healthy in the face of the weakening housing market.
amount created creates economy environment flow freed funds government growth investment pays private saving strong surplus time tremendous
The surplus creates an environment where there's a tremendous amount of saving being freed up for private investment every time the government pays down its debt, that frees funds to flow into private investments. That has created this strong growth economy that we have.
becoming belongs biggest boom center economic engine estate front future goes growth hot housing market page reason reports research risk topic
Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.