Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
drop fed language number reasons
We see a number of reasons for the Fed to drop its 'measured pace' language.
challenger device healthy number telling useful
Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs. The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
challenger device healthy number telling useful
Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs, ... The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
cases companies cutting growth hours looking numbers obviously payroll people reflect slower workers workforce
We are obviously experiencing slower growth and the payroll numbers don't really reflect that yet, which is why they will be an important indicator. Companies have been cutting back the number of hours their workers put in and in some cases cutting back their workforce altogether, and that is what people will be looking for in the numbers.
data domestic gross number pieces quarter sector services worst
We think the ISM services number is one of the worst monthly pieces of data there are. On a month-to-month basis, it has no correlation with service sector employment, and on a quarter to quarter basis, it has no correlation with service sector gross domestic product.
agree attention chairman comments gap itself last might number raised reserve smaller start trade week
The number itself wasn't very surprising, ... (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan's comments last week that the trade gap might start getting smaller raised attention and some hopes. But I didn't agree with him about that.
across auto collapse component growth incentives knew major months number rest row sales single stop weak
We knew we would have a very weak number because of a collapse in auto sales after two big months in a row and the incentives kind of stop working ... But if you look at the rest of the report, every single major component was up. It was very broad-based growth across many components.
gasoline jump large looks number obviously people price public rate rise rose street tendency visible wall
You've had obviously a rise in gasoline prices, which is the visible price in the economy, ... There's (also) a tendency of the public to look at the unemployment rate that actually rose in March, while Wall Street looks at payrolls (which showed a large jump in the number of people working.)
employment hints number strong
This is another of these little hints that we won't get a strong employment number on Friday.
companies company cut economy harder hours job laying natural number people per pull quickly reduce
The one thing that companies can do quickly without laying people off is reduce the number of hours per week; as the economy slows, that's the natural place for a company to cut back. It's a little harder to pull back quickly on job hiring.
growth hard inflation low number strong
This is a feel-good report. When you get a strong growth number and a low inflation number, it's hard to get a better combination than that for the economy.
applying believe labor number people sure
I'm not sure I believe the Labor Department. On Friday, there must have been a below-normal number of people applying for benefits.
chicago national number predictor terms
In terms of being a predictor for the national index, the Chicago number has a spotty record.
both growth inflation market numbers pressure reality sleep
The market is getting lulled into sleep here. In reality we think that both the inflation numbers and the growth numbers will keep the pressure on the Fed.