Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
believe extended fed inflation neutral side stay tight
With inflation trending up, we believe the Fed will want to stay on the tight side of neutral for an extended period.
drop fed language number reasons
We see a number of reasons for the Fed to drop its 'measured pace' language.
both confidence fed financial greater less market means retirement risk somewhat
While the Fed is more than one person, Mr. Greenspan's retirement means less confidence in the Fed, with somewhat greater risk of both financial market instability and inflation.
aggregate along bias break consumer demand expect fed few growth inflation leave prices rates remains signs statements upside vote
With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
capacity concerned economic excess fed growth needed percent quarter rid third
We needed 20 percent economic growth in the third quarter to get rid of all of the excess capacity in the economy. The Fed is still going to be concerned about disinflation.
assuming bond fed gets hikes market pulled
What we're assuming is that as the Fed hikes rates, the bond market gets pulled along.
almost changed commentary fed identical officials people prior sound
I think what people will see is that commentary from Fed officials will sound almost identical to their commentary prior to this meeting. Nothing's really changed at the Fed.
again begins believe continue ease fed forced hike hiking rate until worry
We now believe that the first Fed rate hike will not come until December, and we continue to worry the Fed may be forced to ease again before it begins hiking rates,
fed market
If the Fed isn't happy, the market isn't happy.
background both bush business economic fed history itself list people pick seem
There is a history both in appointments under the Bush administration and the Fed chairmanship itself of people off the list being picked. Bush does seem to have a proclivity to pick people with a more business background for his economic positions.
chance cut fed four gone hold might months period rates reasonable sitting
We've gone from a period where there was a reasonable chance the Fed might cut rates just four months ago to one in which the Fed is very much comfortably just sitting on hold for now.
federal government limited natural role takes
Usually the federal government takes a much more limited role in natural disasters.
economy except fed future hike learned near policy rates ready
In total, we learned very little about the future of the economy or Fed policy except that the Fed is not ready to hike rates in the very near future.
fed inflation national worry
At the national level, the Fed has to worry about the inflation implications of the storm.