Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
disaster forgotten lessons markets natural prior
The markets have forgotten two lessons from prior natural disasters.
ahead bit data fed given holding looking markets meeting rather reacting sort toward uncertain verdict waiting
The markets are going to be a bit uncertain as to how to react, given that the Fed is waiting in the wings. They are all going to be looking ahead toward the FOMC meeting to see what the Fed's verdict is on the data rather than reacting as it comes out. They'll be sort of holding their breath.
adjustment leak market slow
The market has some adjustment to do, but it will be more of a slow leak than a pop.
business certainly economy fairly general half holding increase lack main optimistic past reflects seeing survey year
The main thing holding back the economy in the past year and a half has been a lack of business confidence, and now we're seeing these surveys with a fairly optimistic take on the economy. The non-manufacturing survey certainly reflects the general increase in confidence, and that's a self-fulfilling thing.
kid market toy
The market is kind of like a four-year old kid in a toy store,
both growth inflation market numbers pressure reality sleep
The market is getting lulled into sleep here. In reality we think that both the inflation numbers and the growth numbers will keep the pressure on the Fed.
coming economy energy remarkable seems shocks underlying
Coming after the energy shocks and Katrina, it's a remarkable spring-back. The economy seems to have an underlying resilience.