Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
growth hard inflation low number strong
This is a feel-good report. When you get a strong growth number and a low inflation number, it's hard to get a better combination than that for the economy.
approach changing figure impossible language policy problem
This has been a fundamental problem with the Fed's whole approach to policy making, ... By changing their language so frequently, they make it impossible to figure out what they're doing.
concern people voting
They're voting with their wallets and they're spending. There's always a concern that people just don't like what they're seeing, but they are still buying.
growth percent
A lot of things have to go right even to get 2.3 percent growth for the year,
basis chairman force open point rate term
You don't want to force the new chairman to open his term by having to make a a 50 basis point rate hike.
bond chronic economic global market potent risk
There's a chronic risk to the bond market from global economic recovery. Probably the most potent story is Japan.
fed looking looks percent quarter since subtract twice
You probably want to subtract about two-tenths of a percent from first-quarter GDP growth. But that's looking like very old history, with the Fed having eased twice since the first quarter. From the market's perspective, you feel like you're in a different world already. The first quarter looks very distant, indeed.
economy engines face growth healthy housing sector
This is a sector that should be one of the engines of growth and should keep the economy healthy in the face of the weakening housing market.
clean hurricane talking
This is a nice, clean post-Katrina read. You wouldn't know there'd been a hurricane by the way they're talking about the economy,
employment hints number strong
This is another of these little hints that we won't get a strong employment number on Friday.
lined
This is one of the very-easy-to-interpret reports. In this one, everything lined up like the planets.
bit both calling china deficit pointing policy poor pot reflects sides
The U.S. pointing to China is a bit like the pot calling the kettle black. The deficit with China reflects poor policy on both sides of the Pacific.
becoming belongs biggest boom center economic engine estate front future goes growth hot housing market page reason reports research risk topic
Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.
capacity commodity disruption economy economy-and-economics factors growth higher hurricane local minor national potential productive reduced relatively shipping storms threaten
The national economy usually weathers these storms with relatively minor damage. Second, the hurricane is a 'supply shock' -- a disruption to productive potential -- not a 'demand shock.' The same factors that threaten growth -- higher commodity prices, shipping bottlenecks, reduced local productive capacity -- also threaten inflation.