Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
approach cautious consumer fed handle higher interest medicine nurtured patient recovery shock worried
The Fed is going to take a cautious approach (because) they're worried about how the consumer will handle higher interest rates, ... We've had recovery nurtured on super-low interest rates. They don't want to shock the patient by withdrawing the medicine too quickly.
bias couple easy fed next terms
The Fed is going to have a bias to be very easy in terms of policy, not just in the next couple of months, but well into the future.
advance clarity clear early expect fed iraq march means meeting move news quite seems ugly
The Fed has made it clear that it will take quite ugly news to get them to move in advance of any clarity around the Iraq situation. That means the March 18 meeting seems too early to expect a cut.
cautious everybody line locked optimism risks
The Fed's kind of locked into this cautious optimism mode. Everybody there has the same line about how once geopolitical risks abate things will get better.
announced endgame monetary
The Fed's announced an endgame for monetary policy.
economy except fed future hike learned near policy rates ready
In total, we learned very little about the future of the economy or Fed policy except that the Fed is not ready to hike rates in the very near future.
coming growth job point rate rise sure
If job growth is just 50,000 a month, you can be sure that the unemployment rate is going to rise at some point in the coming months.
christmas cut rate shapes wait
They'll wait to see how Christmas shapes up, and if it's weak, they'll give another rate cut in January.
closely dictionary figure general hold keeping keeps language less rates sounds study though tone
They keep fiddling with the language, and the general tone of the directive keeps getting a little less dovish. Being 'patient' sounds a little less like they're keeping rates on hold than a 'considerable period' -- though you'd need to study a dictionary closely to figure that out.
bleed crisis economy financial major scenario starts
There's this alternative scenario where the financial crisis starts to bleed into the economy in a major way,
bit report retail sales
The retail sales report is a little bit misleading,
blank budget business downside federal government optimistic planning worry
If you're doing budget planning in business, you budget for the downside risks, not for the most optimistic scenario. But the federal government doesn't have to worry too much -- it's the only business that has a blank check.
delays housing impact might prices tend turn whatever
Housing prices tend to turn very slowly, and that delays whatever impact they might have on the economy.
close conditions financial good growth looking moving
Because growth is looking good and financial conditions are good, they'll keep moving up. But they're close to the end.