Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
early interest rates recovery rising talking
By talking about interest rates rising again, you can precipitate them rising too early in a recovery -- that's why he shouldn't be talking about it.
declaring doctor equivalent fed forcing full hike hospital patient rates run
For the Fed to hike rates now would be the equivalent of a doctor prematurely declaring a patient at full health, discharging them from the hospital and then forcing them to run a mile.
alter fed major views
I don't think this should alter anybody's views about the Fed in a major way.
ahead almost consumer continue effects energy pressure slow somewhat spending vulnerable year
The consumer is already somewhat vulnerable in the year ahead as the tax-cut effects fade. If we continue to see pressure from energy prices, consumer spending is almost sure to slow down some.
applying believe labor number people sure
I'm not sure I believe the Labor Department. On Friday, there must have been a below-normal number of people applying for benefits.
breakdown conditions current decrease expect final increase offset reading similar
In the preliminary reading an increase in the index of current conditions was offset by a decrease in the expectations index. We expect a similar breakdown in the final survey.
alone consumer damaged higher oil people prices shocks tax worrying
In the big oil shocks that really damaged the economy, the tax on the consumer was many times more than that, but that alone wasn't enough. You also had to have people worrying that prices were going higher forever.
chicago national number predictor terms
In terms of being a predictor for the national index, the Chicago number has a spotty record.
budget china congress course gradual growth happen ideal less none percent pressure three works
In an ideal world, three simultaneous gradual adjustments would happen. The U.S. eliminates the budget deficit, China revalues by 30 percent and China works to rebalance growth more to consumption and less to exports. Of course none of this will happen and the pressure for protectionism from Congress grows.
economy event ugly
The economy is one ugly event away from contraction.
arguing fed growth inflation rising speakers string
The combination of still-strong growth and rising inflation has prompted a string of hawkish Fed speakers all arguing strenuously for the need to keep inflation contained,
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The indicator that economists use to predict the housing market is the affordability index -- the ratio of monthly income to monthly mortgage payments. As the economy picks up, the typical family's monthly income will slowly accelerate, but the monthly mortgage cost is quickly jumping, much faster than income could possibly move.
clearly recovery
The idea that the recovery has started has been clearly confirmed. But there's no way to know the sustainability of the recovery.
costs financing house
You want to get your house in place before financing costs go up.