Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
benefits lower tax
That basically, in my mind, cancels out the benefits of the lower tax rates,
both giving household payroll quarter rule survey thumb weight
My rule of thumb is to look at both the household and payroll surveys together, giving three-quarters weight to the payroll survey and one quarter to the household survey.
federal government limited natural role takes
Usually the federal government takes a much more limited role in natural disasters.
chairman proving whoever
Whoever is chosen, the new chairman will go through a proving period.
cases companies cutting growth hours looking numbers obviously payroll people reflect slower workers workforce
We are obviously experiencing slower growth and the payroll numbers don't really reflect that yet, which is why they will be an important indicator. Companies have been cutting back the number of hours their workers put in and in some cases cutting back their workforce altogether, and that is what people will be looking for in the numbers.
again begins believe continue ease fed forced hike hiking rate until worry
We now believe that the first Fed rate hike will not come until December, and we continue to worry the Fed may be forced to ease again before it begins hiking rates,
chance cut fed four gone hold might months period rates reasonable sitting
We've gone from a period where there was a reasonable chance the Fed might cut rates just four months ago to one in which the Fed is very much comfortably just sitting on hold for now.
declaring doctor equivalent fed forcing full hike hospital patient rates run
For the Fed to hike rates now would be the equivalent of a doctor prematurely declaring a patient at full health, discharging them from the hospital and then forcing them to run a mile.
alter fed major views
I don't think this should alter anybody's views about the Fed in a major way.
coming economy energy remarkable seems shocks underlying
Coming after the energy shocks and Katrina, it's a remarkable spring-back. The economy seems to have an underlying resilience.
cost economists economy faster housing income indicator market mortgage picks possibly predict quickly ratio slowly typical
The indicator that economists use to predict the housing market is the affordability index -- the ratio of monthly income to monthly mortgage payments. As the economy picks up, the typical family's monthly income will slowly accelerate, but the monthly mortgage cost is quickly jumping, much faster than income could possibly move.
clearly recovery
The idea that the recovery has started has been clearly confirmed. But there's no way to know the sustainability of the recovery.
costs financing house
You want to get your house in place before financing costs go up.
disaster forgotten lessons markets natural prior
The markets have forgotten two lessons from prior natural disasters.