Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
attitude economy happened screw state trying
What's happened between now and then is that we've accomplished everything we've set out to achieve, ... Then they were trying to get the economy to the state it is in now, so the attitude now is, 'lets not screw anything up.'
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The surplus creates an environment where there's a tremendous amount of saving being freed up for private investment every time the government pays down its debt, that frees funds to flow into private investments. That has created this strong growth economy that we have.
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If we have an economy that functions O.K., with a little help from the Fed, in that case gridlock is quite good for the market,
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Obviously we have a pretty weak economy and this was not unexpected. We knew they were going to have to revise it downward.
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But the obvious effect is on utility consumption, which will affect industrial output in the economy. People consume more electricity, that places more demand on natural gas, coal, power, and electrical systems.
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Even with a resolution to the situation in Iraq, the economy will still be suffering from some fairly significant headwinds.
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Even with a positive outcome in the war, the economy is going to have lost a lot of momentum by the time it's over. We're not going to see a few weeks of weak data -- we'll see a few months of weak data.
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The best tack is to move by a quarter point, with the promise that there will be more cuts to come if the economy remains weak. You can't maintain that promise with big bulky rate cuts.
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The adjustment to higher prices has been fairly orderly. It's not a 70's style shock. Oil prices do have an effect on the economy but it's not dramatic. It's a problem but not at the top of the list.
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What we're looking for is evidence of the corporate side of the economy gaining confidence and making real commitments in its own spending. There, I'd say the news is at best mixed,
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We're not going to be in a recession if the economy reverses quickly. But if the war keeps going on, recession is a major risk.
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You're not talking about a full-blown business-cycle recovery here, which is something like 6 percent GDP growth for a year. To get that, you'll need the whole economy operating in full-growth mode, and clearly the consumer isn't.
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Are the economic indicators looking like a recession? Absolutely. But you can still hold out hope that the war is resolved in a month or so and the economy can stage some kind of recovery.
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This is a sector that should be one of the engines of growth and should keep the economy healthy in the face of the weakening housing market.