Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
clean hurricane talking
This is a nice, clean post-Katrina read. You wouldn't know there'd been a hurricane by the way they're talking about the economy,
employment hints number strong
This is another of these little hints that we won't get a strong employment number on Friday.
claims continued people rate sign work
These continued claims are a sign the unemployment rate is still on an upward trajectory. There are still a lot of people out of work out there.
amount created creates economy environment flow freed funds government growth investment pays private saving strong surplus time tremendous
The surplus creates an environment where there's a tremendous amount of saving being freed up for private investment every time the government pays down its debt, that frees funds to flow into private investments. That has created this strong growth economy that we have.
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The third quarter was the sweet spot for profits from an economic perspective. You had this pickup in growth, but you didn't have the pickup in costs. In terms of growth, this is the best quarter we're going to see.
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Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.
case economy functions good help quite
If we have an economy that functions O.K., with a little help from the Fed, in that case gridlock is quite good for the market,
economy knew obviously revise weak
Obviously we have a pretty weak economy and this was not unexpected. We knew they were going to have to revise it downward.
closing gradual industries job losses process seems since
More and more of the job losses are in industries that are effectively closing down domestically. This has been a gradual process since the 1950s, but it seems to have accelerated.
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People will wake up and realize the war on terror has just moved one step forward,
according almost appetite deficit dollar dramatic drop growth improve incredible major movements reason sustained trade weak
Only with very weak U.S. growth or a major drop in the U.S. dollar will the trade deficit improve on a sustained basis. The reason you need these dramatic movements is that the U.S. has, according to almost every study, an incredible appetite for imports.
corporate imagine interested lend load pay reasonable safe sector seen
Imagine you're a bank. The corporate sector isn't interested in borrowing, so you can't lend to it. So where do you go? Well, mortgages. They pay a reasonable rate. They're seen as a safe investment. Load up on mortgage-backed securities.
capacity concerned economic excess fed growth needed percent quarter rid third
We needed 20 percent economic growth in the third quarter to get rid of all of the excess capacity in the economy. The Fed is still going to be concerned about disinflation.
entering uncertain
Now you are entering a much more uncertain period.