Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
below model point reached trust
We reached the point where we don't trust our model anymore. That's why we were below the consensus.
best confidence corporate economy evidence gaining looking news side
What we're looking for is evidence of the corporate side of the economy gaining confidence and making real commitments in its own spending. There, I'd say the news is at best mixed,
benefits consumers economic job labor market reasons recovery spend sustain
Ultimately, for the economic recovery to sustain itself, we have to see the labor market improve. As the tax-cut benefits fade, consumers will look for more fundamental reasons to spend money, and there will have to be some job growth.
across auto collapse component growth incentives knew major months number rest row sales single stop weak
We knew we would have a very weak number because of a collapse in auto sales after two big months in a row and the incentives kind of stop working ... But if you look at the rest of the report, every single major component was up. It was very broad-based growth across many components.
economy keeps major recession war
We're not going to be in a recession if the economy reverses quickly. But if the war keeps going on, recession is a major risk.
concern people voting
They're voting with their wallets and they're spending. There's always a concern that people just don't like what they're seeing, but they are still buying.
growth percent
A lot of things have to go right even to get 2.3 percent growth for the year,
adding board financial governors initially markets monetary players policy terms
They're adding to the intellectual firepower of the board of governors in terms of regulatory and financial markets issues, but initially they won't be important players in the monetary policy front.
asked definitely event wife work
There's definitely going to be nervousness around the event and a kind of inertia. My wife has already asked me not to come into work that day.
believe chronic economists employment finally hope improvement month overall past reason relative stage tendency three
At every stage in the past three years, employment has disappointed relative to overall activity. It's a chronic issue, and there's been a tendency for economists to hope this will finally be the month when improvement occurs. But I have no reason to believe it will.
gasoline jump large looks number obviously people price public rate rise rose street tendency visible wall
You've had obviously a rise in gasoline prices, which is the visible price in the economy, ... There's (also) a tendency of the public to look at the unemployment rate that actually rose in March, while Wall Street looks at payrolls (which showed a large jump in the number of people working.)
clearly consumer economy growth operating percent recovery talking
You're not talking about a full-blown business-cycle recovery here, which is something like 6 percent GDP growth for a year. To get that, you'll need the whole economy operating in full-growth mode, and clearly the consumer isn't.
bottom continued cost discipline flow growth spent wage
You're going to see continued cost discipline. So when growth comes it won't be spent on things like wage increases, but will flow to the bottom line.
fed looking looks percent quarter since subtract twice
You probably want to subtract about two-tenths of a percent from first-quarter GDP growth. But that's looking like very old history, with the Fed having eased twice since the first quarter. From the market's perspective, you feel like you're in a different world already. The first quarter looks very distant, indeed.