Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
companies fewer finding growth incredible maintain technology ways
Companies have been able to maintain incredible productivity growth for a low-growth economy. It does look like firms are finding ways to use technology and make do with fewer workers.
companies less paying
Companies are paying more compensation and getting less productivity growth.
concern discount negative news noticeable people quickly reading
A negative reading would be a noticeable headline. Some people will quickly discount it, say it's old news, but it could reawaken concern about the economy.
economic economy hold hope looking month resolved stage war
Are the economic indicators looking like a recession? Absolutely. But you can still hold out hope that the war is resolved in a month or so and the economy can stage some kind of recovery.
apparently monetary policy shock taken value
Apparently the Fed's new policy of 'transparency' has taken the shock value out of monetary policy.
economy except fed future hike learned near policy rates ready
In total, we learned very little about the future of the economy or Fed policy except that the Fed is not ready to hike rates in the very near future.
breakdown conditions current decrease expect final increase offset reading similar
In the preliminary reading an increase in the index of current conditions was offset by a decrease in the expectations index. We expect a similar breakdown in the final survey.
alone consumer damaged higher oil people prices shocks tax worrying
In the big oil shocks that really damaged the economy, the tax on the consumer was many times more than that, but that alone wasn't enough. You also had to have people worrying that prices were going higher forever.
chicago national number predictor terms
In terms of being a predictor for the national index, the Chicago number has a spotty record.
budget china congress course gradual growth happen ideal less none percent pressure three works
In an ideal world, three simultaneous gradual adjustments would happen. The U.S. eliminates the budget deficit, China revalues by 30 percent and China works to rebalance growth more to consumption and less to exports. Of course none of this will happen and the pressure for protectionism from Congress grows.
bit report retail sales
The retail sales report is a little bit misleading,
fed inflation national worry
At the national level, the Fed has to worry about the inflation implications of the storm.
anywhere believe capital catalyst point recovery spending
As you look down the road, at some point you've got to believe there's a real recovery in capital spending on the way. But I don't see the catalyst anywhere in sight.
america boost corporate growth job labor means move output picking serious slow wait whatever
The labor market's going to have a long, slow climb. Corporate America is going to use whatever means it can to boost output without hiring. They're going to wait and wait for confirmation that growth is really picking up before they move into serious job hiring.