Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
aggregate along bias break consumer demand expect fed few growth inflation leave prices rates remains signs statements upside vote
With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
benign inflation remain
We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.
believe extended fed inflation neutral side stay tight
With inflation trending up, we believe the Fed will want to stay on the tight side of neutral for an extended period.
friendly inflation major signals warning
It's not as friendly as some of the other inflation numbers, but it's just one indicator. We have no inflation warning signals from any of the other major inflation indicators.
growth hard inflation low number strong
This is a feel-good report. When you get a strong growth number and a low inflation number, it's hard to get a better combination than that for the economy.
almost convince inflation last straw
I think that (high inflation readings) would be almost the last straw to convince the Fed.
data dictate economy further gradual inflation markets risks step stop strong towards
It is gradual step towards a little more flexibility. Inflation, the economy and the markets will dictate how much further they go. They say the economy is strong and that inflation risks are tilted a little to the upside. There is nothing yet in the data that will stop the Fed.
clearly economy economy-and-economics inflation momentum plenty risk
Clearly the economy still has plenty of momentum with a little hint of inflation risk in the background.
fed inflation national worry
At the national level, the Fed has to worry about the inflation implications of the storm.
arguing fed growth inflation rising speakers string
The combination of still-strong growth and rising inflation has prompted a string of hawkish Fed speakers all arguing strenuously for the need to keep inflation contained,
both growth inflation market numbers pressure reality sleep
The market is getting lulled into sleep here. In reality we think that both the inflation numbers and the growth numbers will keep the pressure on the Fed.
attitude economy happened screw state trying
What's happened between now and then is that we've accomplished everything we've set out to achieve, ... Then they were trying to get the economy to the state it is in now, so the attitude now is, 'lets not screw anything up.'
drop fed language number reasons
We see a number of reasons for the Fed to drop its 'measured pace' language.
claims continued people rate sign work
These continued claims are a sign the unemployment rate is still on an upward trajectory. There are still a lot of people out of work out there.