Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
friendly inflation major signals warning
It's not as friendly as some of the other inflation numbers, but it's just one indicator. We have no inflation warning signals from any of the other major inflation indicators.
fed inflation national worry
At the national level, the Fed has to worry about the inflation implications of the storm.
aggregate along bias break consumer demand expect fed few growth inflation leave prices rates remains signs statements upside vote
With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
benign inflation remain
We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.
believe extended fed inflation neutral side stay tight
With inflation trending up, we believe the Fed will want to stay on the tight side of neutral for an extended period.
growth hard inflation low number strong
This is a feel-good report. When you get a strong growth number and a low inflation number, it's hard to get a better combination than that for the economy.
clearly economy economy-and-economics inflation momentum plenty risk
Clearly the economy still has plenty of momentum with a little hint of inflation risk in the background.
almost convince inflation last straw
I think that (high inflation readings) would be almost the last straw to convince the Fed.
data dictate economy further gradual inflation markets risks step stop strong towards
It is gradual step towards a little more flexibility. Inflation, the economy and the markets will dictate how much further they go. They say the economy is strong and that inflation risks are tilted a little to the upside. There is nothing yet in the data that will stop the Fed.
both growth inflation market numbers pressure reality sleep
The market is getting lulled into sleep here. In reality we think that both the inflation numbers and the growth numbers will keep the pressure on the Fed.
arguing fed growth inflation rising speakers string
The combination of still-strong growth and rising inflation has prompted a string of hawkish Fed speakers all arguing strenuously for the need to keep inflation contained,
budget china congress course gradual growth happen ideal less none percent pressure three works
In an ideal world, three simultaneous gradual adjustments would happen. The U.S. eliminates the budget deficit, China revalues by 30 percent and China works to rebalance growth more to consumption and less to exports. Of course none of this will happen and the pressure for protectionism from Congress grows.
erosion explosion question sudden
It's not a question of a sudden explosion in prices. It's more an erosion of the low-inflation psychology.
average bills bulk burden confidence consumer cut debt driver growth leaving less past paying people picking several slow taken tax truth wage
Everyone is all zeroed in on the consumer now, but the truth is that the consumer isn't the driver now. Confidence is picking up, but still at average levels. Wage growth is slow and the bulk of the tax cut is already in place. Finally, with all the debt people have taken out over the past several years the burden of paying monthly bills is leaving less for discretionary spending.