John Silvia
John Silvia
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Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.
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Once that confidence is lost, foreign capital stops flowing here. We'll have much higher interest rates and a negative impact on the economy.
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A lot of people are figuring out the rates are going up and this is their last chance to get in there and buy homes.
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Home buyers need something visible on-screen to surprise them, ... If it's the dollar gradually losing another 10 percent or mortgage rates creeping up 1 percentage point, that's not going to do it.
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The rate of spending is less than you would have expected given the typical business cycle. Companies have made a lot of money, but if you look at equipment and software spending, this cycle is below the pace of the past three or four cycles.
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I think if you had $70 oil, and the Fed were to continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, that could cause a problem, ... I think there's a certain breaking point where that the price of energy alone is so high that it changes the psychology of both businesses and consumers. I think $80 would probably break the back.
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The market has not seen a negative sharp change in fundamentals, ... You haven't seen a sharp rise in interest rates or a signal that the money isn't there to keep lifting prices.
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Increased domestic demand is now being satisfied by supply from abroad. Fewer domestic jobs have been created than the average historical experience and predicted by the models used by policy makers.
line sales
On balance, I think it's the latter. In most businesses, inventories are in line with sales expectations.
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I've heard a lot of discussion the number could come out stronger. We have different models, and a couple of them have estimates where the number is higher.
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Taken together, all this employment data provides the Federal Reserve with a measure of confidence to allow an increase in the funds rate,
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Summer months can be particularly hazardous for forecasters, ... The timing of the end of the school year, seasonal hiring patterns and even weather can distort the monthly figure.
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The language will clearly be different. He'll give you a direct answer.
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The Fed is going to look at this number and go full-steam ahead with 25-basis-point increases at its next two meetings to keep inflation in check, ... This is a pretty good payroll number for September. The market dodged a bullet with this report.