John Silvia
John Silvia
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We avoided the sticker shock from high heating bills in October because it was so warm. If it stays warm through Thanksgiving, we should have a good holiday shopping season.
afford job leave offer threaten workers
Firms can't afford to offer much, and workers don't want to threaten to leave because of the job situation.
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Firms are substituting capital -- particularly high-tech capital -- for labor. They're putting smart machines on the factory floor and in the service industry. That may explain why high-tech orders for capital goods have been going up, despite the fact that manufacturers don't seem to be hiring a lot of people.
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Consumer sentiment numbers are not reflecting economic sentiment, but political or social sentiment. If you were generating an economic forecast of spending from these numbers, you'd be totally wrong.
fed giving labor market means next reason several sit slack tight
That means there is even more slack in the labor market than we had previously thought, giving the Fed even more reason to sit tight for the next several months.
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I've heard a lot of discussion the number could come out stronger. We have different models, and a couple of them have estimates where the number is higher.
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It's good news for the economy, it's good news for the Fed and it's good news for corporate profits,
adjustment change consumers downward expected gasoline increase overall pace permanent saving spending view
They view the gasoline thing as temporary, and that's important because it didn't change their overall pace of spending. And that's a different kind of psychology. If it was a permanent increase in gasoline prices, then you would have expected consumers to make a more permanent adjustment downward in their spending and saving rate.
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Taken together, all this employment data provides the Federal Reserve with a measure of confidence to allow an increase in the funds rate,
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Summer months can be particularly hazardous for forecasters, ... The timing of the end of the school year, seasonal hiring patterns and even weather can distort the monthly figure.
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It's a good number, and shows the economy continues to move ahead. What's great is that it's broad-based growth. All the basic components are showing forward motion, which is bullish going forward.
basic bullish components continues economy forward good great move showing shows
It's a good number, and shows the economy continues to move ahead, ... What's great is that it's broad-based growth. All the basic components are showing forward motion, which is bullish going forward.
experience reality
The reality is someone new is going to have to take over the job, and that new person is never going to have as much experience as Greenspan,
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The outlook accounting for Katrina suggests growth will slow in both the third and fourth quarter due to slower consumer spending.