John Silvia
John Silvia
behind bond fed market move neutral react risk
If they don't move to a neutral position, the bond market will react negatively. If the Fed sits there and reiterates the same risk on inflation, the bond market is going to look at this and say the Fed is way behind the curve.
consumer definitely employment expect figure filing financing gains half income offset season second slow spending tax wage
We definitely have to figure that once tax filing season is done and tax refunds are cashed, we do expect consumer spending will slow down in the second half of this year, ... I don't see any way to fudge that (higher financing costs). You're not getting the employment gains or wage and income gains to offset that.
business caution decline employment leisure rising
The decline in retail, leisure and transportation employment suggests rising business caution independent of any short-term storm,
corporate fed good news
It's good news for the economy, it's good news for the Fed and it's good news for corporate profits,
basic bullish components continues economy forward good great move showing shows
It's a good number, and shows the economy continues to move ahead. What's great is that it's broad-based growth. All the basic components are showing forward motion, which is bullish going forward.
basic bullish components continues economy forward good great move showing shows
It's a good number, and shows the economy continues to move ahead, ... What's great is that it's broad-based growth. All the basic components are showing forward motion, which is bullish going forward.
consumer economic forecast generating numbers political reflecting sentiment social spending totally
Consumer sentiment numbers are not reflecting economic sentiment, but political or social sentiment. If you were generating an economic forecast of spending from these numbers, you'd be totally wrong.
fed giving labor market means next reason several sit slack tight
That means there is even more slack in the labor market than we had previously thought, giving the Fed even more reason to sit tight for the next several months.
fed follow jobs reactive
They (the Fed governors) are going to follow the jobs report. They're not going to be proactive. They're going to be reactive to the data,
buy chance figuring last people rates
A lot of people are figuring out the rates are going up and this is their last chance to get in there and buy homes.
although early expect improvement moving perhaps production sector
Although production in the manufacturing sector may be stabilizing, and perhaps even moving higher, it is still too early to expect an improvement in employment.
drag economic expecting flat fourth growth housing quarter second third
We're expecting housing to be flat in the second quarter and a drag on economic growth in the third quarter and fourth quarter.
iraq negative positive war
In no way is that positive for the administration in the fall. We are going to be in Iraq at the same time. It's war and the (slowing) economy. That has to be negative for the administration.
business dismiss employment energy household impact manager plans prices prudent
But I don't think a prudent business or household manager can dismiss these energy prices today. We'll have to see what impact this all has on spending, employment plans and the rest.