John Silvia
John Silvia
chairman cited concerns costs greenspan inflation key labor latest outlook
Labor costs were one of the key inflation concerns cited by Chairman (Alan) Greenspan in his latest testimony, ... Our outlook reinforces his concern.
growth inflation looks paid pressures prices problem remain suggesting
Growth looks solid. The problem is prices paid were up again, suggesting inflation pressures remain a concern.
companies costs growth increased materials pass people profit raw seeing shouting start surprised worry
I don't think you have to worry about a profit squeeze, but don't be surprised when people start shouting profit growth has peaked. A lot of companies that are seeing increased costs for raw materials will not be able to pass them on to the consumers.
challenge issues straight tackle
He'll tackle the issues straight on, here's how I think how we got here, and here's you have to do. It'll be a real challenge to the politicians.
goal greenspan inflation theme
He'll keep up the Greenspan theme that the Fed's no. 1 goal is to keep inflation under control.
ask difficult fed inflation low point question risen seeing trend
What you're seeing is that inflation is rising, ... It's still at a low level, but you know what the trend is. The question to ask is, How much is too much? At what point does the Fed say it's risen enough that we don't want it to go any higher? That's the difficult question to answer.
forward trying
Going forward there is a sense of what are we trying to do here?
consensus fed goes neutral position
I would say the consensus is that the Fed goes to a neutral position on inflation.
below bounce clearly gains higher impact job month next oil prices reflect slower specific
Job gains were clearly below expectations and trend. There may be some bounce back next month in specific sectors. Slower job gains may also reflect the impact of higher oil prices and uncertainty in the spring.
change fed language optimism policy saying signal suspect
I suspect that there's a little optimism that the Fed will signal that they are just about done, that they'll change their language from saying 'further policy firming may be' to saying it 'might be' needed.
drag economic expecting flat fourth growth housing quarter second third
We're expecting housing to be flat in the second quarter and a drag on economic growth in the third quarter and fourth quarter.
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You have the Baby Boomers having the resources to buy condominiums, betting on the increase in value in the next six months, ... That activity may be the first to feel the crunch if the housing bubble bursts.
economy fit jobs labor market mold
Today's labor market does not fit the mold of the old models. The economy has recovered, and many of the old jobs are gone.
cent currently domestic gross growth nearly per product risks stacked
We are currently estimating first-quarter US real gross domestic product growth at 5.3 per cent and feel the risks are nearly uniformly stacked on the upside.