John Silvia
John Silvia
ask difficult fed inflation low point question risen seeing trend
What you're seeing is that inflation is rising, ... It's still at a low level, but you know what the trend is. The question to ask is, How much is too much? At what point does the Fed say it's risen enough that we don't want it to go any higher? That's the difficult question to answer.
growth inflation looks paid pressures prices problem remain suggesting
Growth looks solid. The problem is prices paid were up again, suggesting inflation pressures remain a concern.
argument bias bit capacity careful excess fed inflation longer upside
You can no longer make the argument that there is a lot of excess capacity out there. The bias on inflation is a little bit to the upside and the Fed has to be careful about that.
chairman cited concerns costs greenspan inflation key labor latest outlook
Labor costs were one of the key inflation concerns cited by Chairman (Alan) Greenspan in his latest testimony, ... Our outlook reinforces his concern.
goal greenspan inflation theme
He'll keep up the Greenspan theme that the Fed's no. 1 goal is to keep inflation under control.
ahead bullet fed good increases inflation market meetings next number payroll
The Fed is going to look at this number and go full-steam ahead with 25-basis-point increases at its next two meetings to keep inflation in check, ... This is a pretty good payroll number for September. The market dodged a bullet with this report.
bond continue discount fed gains growth higher inflation interest modest raises rates remain rise short traders trend
Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.
adding gone jobs means month per recovery zero
We went from adding zero to 50,000 jobs per month up to adding 300,000 jobs per month. Now we're going to adding 200,000 per month. Going from 300,000 to 200,000 means we've gone from a recovery to an expansion.
continue economy foreign interest likely private remains secular securities trend
The secular trend of foreign private interest in U.S. securities is likely to continue as long as the U.S. economy remains strong.
played washington
They are all pretty well-known. They have all played in Washington circles.
economy move neutral
An economy in neutral has started to move forward.
employment eve markets solid
Employment markets were solid on the eve of destruction.
consumer employment far housing impact oil price spending stronger wages
Employment and wages are stronger and therefore, consumer spending is stronger. Housing is slowing, but not as much as we would have expected, and the price of oil is so far not having that big an impact on the consumer.
adjusted christmas expected faster people sales signal weaker
People have adjusted faster than we expected to the way they use credit. This could be a signal that Christmas sales may be weaker than expected.