John Silvia
John Silvia
allow confidence data employment federal funds increase measure provides reserve taken
Taken together, all this employment data provides the Federal Reserve with a measure of confidence to allow an increase in the funds rate,
employment eve markets solid
Employment markets were solid on the eve of destruction.
consumer employment far housing impact oil price spending stronger wages
Employment and wages are stronger and therefore, consumer spending is stronger. Housing is slowing, but not as much as we would have expected, and the price of oil is so far not having that big an impact on the consumer.
economic employment growth labor recovery relationship time
This is really the first post-NAFTA, post-WTO economic recovery we've ever had in this country. Because of the globalization of the labor market, the relationship between economic growth and employment is different this time than it has been in the past.
continued economic employment gains good interest limited news rising risk supports upside view
This good news supports the view of continued economic and employment gains with limited upside risk of rising interest rates.
consumer definitely employment expect figure filing financing gains half income offset season second slow spending tax wage
We definitely have to figure that once tax filing season is done and tax refunds are cashed, we do expect consumer spending will slow down in the second half of this year, ... I don't see any way to fudge that (higher financing costs). You're not getting the employment gains or wage and income gains to offset that.
business caution decline employment leisure rising
The decline in retail, leisure and transportation employment suggests rising business caution independent of any short-term storm,
business dismiss employment energy household impact manager plans prices prudent
But I don't think a prudent business or household manager can dismiss these energy prices today. We'll have to see what impact this all has on spending, employment plans and the rest.
clearly employment eventually number retail revised several
I think clearly the retail employment number is goofy. I think when that number is revised and we look back several months, we'll eventually see a gain.
below employment gains improve likely months remain sector
Manufacturing sector employment is likely to improve in the months ahead. However, employment gains are likely to remain below par.
employment fewer output producing result sector
Manufacturing output is up, yet employment in the manufacturing sector is down. This result suggests that the firms are producing more in the U.S., but doing it with fewer workers.
employment evidence far gain suggest
The evidence so far would suggest we're probably going to have a below-average employment gain in this recovery.
bond continue discount fed gains growth higher inflation interest modest raises rates remain rise short traders trend
Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.
average created demand domestic experience fewer historical increased jobs models policy predicted satisfied supply
Increased domestic demand is now being satisfied by supply from abroad. Fewer domestic jobs have been created than the average historical experience and predicted by the models used by policy makers.