John Silvia
John Silvia
consumer employment far housing impact oil price spending stronger wages
Employment and wages are stronger and therefore, consumer spending is stronger. Housing is slowing, but not as much as we would have expected, and the price of oil is so far not having that big an impact on the consumer.
argument bias bit capacity careful excess fed inflation longer upside
You can no longer make the argument that there is a lot of excess capacity out there. The bias on inflation is a little bit to the upside and the Fed has to be careful about that.
ahead data growth initial inventory likely orders remains slower stage suggested
As suggested by the orders data and the ISM survey, the initial stage of inventory replenishment has not been sustained, ... Slower growth ahead remains the most likely outcome.
cash people
There's got to be a lot of people out there with the cash for a deposit.
played washington
They are all pretty well-known. They have all played in Washington circles.
economic employment growth labor recovery relationship time
This is really the first post-NAFTA, post-WTO economic recovery we've ever had in this country. Because of the globalization of the labor market, the relationship between economic growth and employment is different this time than it has been in the past.
continued economic employment gains good interest limited news rising risk supports upside view
This good news supports the view of continued economic and employment gains with limited upside risk of rising interest rates.
cities create dead living older others passed
They see these older cities that others may have passed over or thought for dead as environments where they can really create their own living space.
adjusted christmas expected faster people sales signal weaker
People have adjusted faster than we expected to the way they use credit. This could be a signal that Christmas sales may be weaker than expected.
decision driven fed
That's going to be driven by the decision making of the new Fed chairman.
defense goods middle quarter spending tends terms
Defense spending tends to be very lumpy in terms of the quarter in which it hits. When you're in the middle of a war, you have to have goods delivered. But even if it had been 3.6, it would still be respectable growth.
start strong
This is a surprisingly strong start of the year.
continue economy foreign interest likely private remains secular securities trend
The secular trend of foreign private interest in U.S. securities is likely to continue as long as the U.S. economy remains strong.
america canada coming imported increased latin open supply
If we get increased demand, where is the supply coming from? Is it domestic, or is it imported from Canada, Latin America and Asia? That's still an open question,