John Silvia
John Silvia
goal greenspan inflation theme
He'll keep up the Greenspan theme that the Fed's no. 1 goal is to keep inflation under control.
business dismiss employment energy household impact manager plans prices prudent
But I don't think a prudent business or household manager can dismiss these energy prices today. We'll have to see what impact this all has on spending, employment plans and the rest.
clearly direct language
The language will clearly be different. He'll give you a direct answer.
ahead bullet fed good increases inflation market meetings next number payroll
The Fed is going to look at this number and go full-steam ahead with 25-basis-point increases at its next two meetings to keep inflation in check, ... This is a pretty good payroll number for September. The market dodged a bullet with this report.
capital confidence flowing foreign higher impact interest negative rates stops
Once that confidence is lost, foreign capital stops flowing here. We'll have much higher interest rates and a negative impact on the economy.
line sales
On balance, I think it's the latter. In most businesses, inventories are in line with sales expectations.
convince difficult high jobs people perceive
If people perceive that all-time high as 'normal,' that's going to make it very difficult to convince them that jobs are plentiful.
storm
If you get a storm like this every 20 years,
below care control market price rent sort york
If you're going to set a price below market price, you're going to have to have some sort of rationing. I don't care if it's gasoline, prescription drugs or rent control in New York City.
iraq negative positive war
In no way is that positive for the administration in the fall. We are going to be in Iraq at the same time. It's war and the (slowing) economy. That has to be negative for the administration.
buyers creeping dollar gradually home losing mortgage percent percentage rates surprise visible
Home buyers need something visible on-screen to surprise them, ... If it's the dollar gradually losing another 10 percent or mortgage rates creeping up 1 percentage point, that's not going to do it.
economic legs quarter recovery
The economic recovery has legs -- those of a pony, not yet a quarter horse.
employment evidence far gain suggest
The evidence so far would suggest we're probably going to have a below-average employment gain in this recovery.
change interest lifting market money negative rates rise seen sharp signal
The market has not seen a negative sharp change in fundamentals, ... You haven't seen a sharp rise in interest rates or a signal that the money isn't there to keep lifting prices.