John Silvia
John Silvia
economy move neutral
An economy in neutral has started to move forward.
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If they don't move to a neutral position, the bond market will react negatively. If the Fed sits there and reiterates the same risk on inflation, the bond market is going to look at this and say the Fed is way behind the curve.
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It's a good number, and shows the economy continues to move ahead. What's great is that it's broad-based growth. All the basic components are showing forward motion, which is bullish going forward.
basic bullish components continues economy forward good great move showing shows
It's a good number, and shows the economy continues to move ahead, ... What's great is that it's broad-based growth. All the basic components are showing forward motion, which is bullish going forward.
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I think futures are up because people are looking ahead to today's numbers and seeing that this economy continues to move ahead very nicely, no matter what problems a specific company may be reporting.
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Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.
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Increased domestic demand is now being satisfied by supply from abroad. Fewer domestic jobs have been created than the average historical experience and predicted by the models used by policy makers.
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Once that confidence is lost, foreign capital stops flowing here. We'll have much higher interest rates and a negative impact on the economy.
line sales
On balance, I think it's the latter. In most businesses, inventories are in line with sales expectations.
couple discussion estimates heard number
I've heard a lot of discussion the number could come out stronger. We have different models, and a couple of them have estimates where the number is higher.
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Taken together, all this employment data provides the Federal Reserve with a measure of confidence to allow an increase in the funds rate,
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Summer months can be particularly hazardous for forecasters, ... The timing of the end of the school year, seasonal hiring patterns and even weather can distort the monthly figure.
clearly direct language
The language will clearly be different. He'll give you a direct answer.
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The Fed is going to look at this number and go full-steam ahead with 25-basis-point increases at its next two meetings to keep inflation in check, ... This is a pretty good payroll number for September. The market dodged a bullet with this report.