John Silvia
John Silvia
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This is really the first post-NAFTA, post-WTO economic recovery we've ever had in this country. Because of the globalization of the labor market, the relationship between economic growth and employment is different this time than it has been in the past.
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This good news supports the view of continued economic and employment gains with limited upside risk of rising interest rates.
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Defense spending tends to be very lumpy in terms of the quarter in which it hits. When you're in the middle of a war, you have to have goods delivered. But even if it had been 3.6, it would still be respectable growth.
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They see these older cities that others may have passed over or thought for dead as environments where they can really create their own living space.
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Labor costs were one of the key inflation concerns cited by Chairman (Alan) Greenspan in his latest testimony, ... Our outlook reinforces his concern.
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I would say the consensus is that the Fed goes to a neutral position on inflation.
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Job gains were clearly below expectations and trend. There may be some bounce back next month in specific sectors. Slower job gains may also reflect the impact of higher oil prices and uncertainty in the spring.
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I suspect that there's a little optimism that the Fed will signal that they are just about done, that they'll change their language from saying 'further policy firming may be' to saying it 'might be' needed.
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It appears as if when consumers are faced with higher gasoline prices, they continue to spend their money,
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I think it's just oil and optimism about the New Year. I think oil is the driving factor due to the warmer weather, but people are now looking for better than expected (fourth-quarter) earnings, better than expected retail sales number. There's a host of good numbers out there.
tough
I think it's way overdue for this administration to get tough on spending,
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Going forward there is a sense of what are we trying to do here?
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Our bet is that the impact, if there is a lot of damage, will get us $3-per-gallon gas in three weeks.
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He'll tackle the issues straight on, here's how I think how we got here, and here's you have to do. It'll be a real challenge to the politicians.