John Silvia
John Silvia
avoided bills good high holiday october shock shopping stays sticker warm
We avoided the sticker shock from high heating bills in October because it was so warm. If it stays warm through Thanksgiving, we should have a good holiday shopping season.
capital despite explain factory floor goods hiring machines orders putting seem service smart
Firms are substituting capital -- particularly high-tech capital -- for labor. They're putting smart machines on the factory floor and in the service industry. That may explain why high-tech orders for capital goods have been going up, despite the fact that manufacturers don't seem to be hiring a lot of people.
confusion create good labor leads policy public sides stories telling useful
It does create a lot confusion and leads to different sides telling different stories -- not useful for making good public policy for the labor market,
driving due expected factor good host looking numbers oil optimism people retail sales warmer
I think it's just oil and optimism about the New Year. I think oil is the driving factor due to the warmer weather, but people are now looking for better than expected (fourth-quarter) earnings, better than expected retail sales number. There's a host of good numbers out there.
ahead bullet fed good increases inflation market meetings next number payroll
The Fed is going to look at this number and go full-steam ahead with 25-basis-point increases at its next two meetings to keep inflation in check, ... This is a pretty good payroll number for September. The market dodged a bullet with this report.
corporate fed good news
It's good news for the economy, it's good news for the Fed and it's good news for corporate profits,
basic bullish components continues economy forward good great move showing shows
It's a good number, and shows the economy continues to move ahead. What's great is that it's broad-based growth. All the basic components are showing forward motion, which is bullish going forward.
basic bullish components continues economy forward good great move showing shows
It's a good number, and shows the economy continues to move ahead, ... What's great is that it's broad-based growth. All the basic components are showing forward motion, which is bullish going forward.
continued economic employment gains good interest limited news rising risk supports upside view
This good news supports the view of continued economic and employment gains with limited upside risk of rising interest rates.
defense goods middle quarter spending tends terms
Defense spending tends to be very lumpy in terms of the quarter in which it hits. When you're in the middle of a war, you have to have goods delivered. But even if it had been 3.6, it would still be respectable growth.
centered continue largely recession signs strongest
The recession was largely centered in the manufacturing sector, and that is where we continue to see the strongest signs of recovery.
central concern growth japan looking news people
There has to be concern about sustainability of growth overseas; Japan is central to that issue, ... If people are looking at fundamentals, that's the only news they have to look at this morning.
ahead data growth initial inventory likely orders remains slower stage suggested
As suggested by the orders data and the ISM survey, the initial stage of inventory replenishment has not been sustained, ... Slower growth ahead remains the most likely outcome.
argument bias bit capacity careful excess fed inflation longer upside
You can no longer make the argument that there is a lot of excess capacity out there. The bias on inflation is a little bit to the upside and the Fed has to be careful about that.