John Silvia
John Silvia
bond continue discount fed gains growth higher inflation interest modest raises rates remain rise short traders trend
Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.
continued economic employment gains good interest limited news rising risk supports upside view
This good news supports the view of continued economic and employment gains with limited upside risk of rising interest rates.
continue economy foreign interest likely private remains secular securities trend
The secular trend of foreign private interest in U.S. securities is likely to continue as long as the U.S. economy remains strong.
basic bullish components continues economy forward good great move showing shows
It's a good number, and shows the economy continues to move ahead. What's great is that it's broad-based growth. All the basic components are showing forward motion, which is bullish going forward.
basic bullish components continues economy forward good great move showing shows
It's a good number, and shows the economy continues to move ahead, ... What's great is that it's broad-based growth. All the basic components are showing forward motion, which is bullish going forward.
centered continue largely recession signs strongest
The recession was largely centered in the manufacturing sector, and that is where we continue to see the strongest signs of recovery.
appears consumers continue faced gasoline higher spend
It appears as if when consumers are faced with higher gasoline prices, they continue to spend their money,
alone both breaking businesses cause certain changes continue energy fed fight high interest point price psychology raise rates
I think if you had $70 oil, and the Fed were to continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, that could cause a problem, ... I think there's a certain breaking point where that the price of energy alone is so high that it changes the psychology of both businesses and consumers. I think $80 would probably break the back.
ahead company continues economy looking matter move numbers people problems seeing specific
I think futures are up because people are looking ahead to today's numbers and seeing that this economy continues to move ahead very nicely, no matter what problems a specific company may be reporting.
average created demand domestic experience fewer historical increased jobs models policy predicted satisfied supply
Increased domestic demand is now being satisfied by supply from abroad. Fewer domestic jobs have been created than the average historical experience and predicted by the models used by policy makers.
capital confidence flowing foreign higher impact interest negative rates stops
Once that confidence is lost, foreign capital stops flowing here. We'll have much higher interest rates and a negative impact on the economy.
line sales
On balance, I think it's the latter. In most businesses, inventories are in line with sales expectations.
couple discussion estimates heard number
I've heard a lot of discussion the number could come out stronger. We have different models, and a couple of them have estimates where the number is higher.
allow confidence data employment federal funds increase measure provides reserve taken
Taken together, all this employment data provides the Federal Reserve with a measure of confidence to allow an increase in the funds rate,