John Silvia
John Silvia
degrees pain
There are varying degrees of pain, but I don't think there are going to be many sectors that are not going to be impacted,
drag economic expecting flat fourth growth housing quarter second third
We're expecting housing to be flat in the second quarter and a drag on economic growth in the third quarter and fourth quarter.
change difficult fed goal market point pursuing raising sell
I think the market may sell off if there's no change in statement, ... It'll still be in the same difficult position, and it'll be disappointed that at this point the Fed is still pursuing goal of raising rates.
cent currently domestic gross growth nearly per product risks stacked
We are currently estimating first-quarter US real gross domestic product growth at 5.3 per cent and feel the risks are nearly uniformly stacked on the upside.
below business companies cycle equipment expected four given less pace past rate software spending three typical
The rate of spending is less than you would have expected given the typical business cycle. Companies have made a lot of money, but if you look at equipment and software spending, this cycle is below the pace of the past three or four cycles.
answer capital kick question spending
The question is often asked: When will capital spending kick in? I answer that it already has.
activity baby betting boomers bubble buy crunch housing increase next resources six value
You have the Baby Boomers having the resources to buy condominiums, betting on the increase in value in the next six months, ... That activity may be the first to feel the crunch if the housing bubble bursts.
consumer definitely employment expect figure filing financing gains half income offset season second slow spending tax wage
We definitely have to figure that once tax filing season is done and tax refunds are cashed, we do expect consumer spending will slow down in the second half of this year, ... I don't see any way to fudge that (higher financing costs). You're not getting the employment gains or wage and income gains to offset that.
business caution decline employment leisure rising
The decline in retail, leisure and transportation employment suggests rising business caution independent of any short-term storm,
fed follow jobs reactive
They (the Fed governors) are going to follow the jobs report. They're not going to be proactive. They're going to be reactive to the data,
buy chance figuring last people rates
A lot of people are figuring out the rates are going up and this is their last chance to get in there and buy homes.
although early expect improvement moving perhaps production sector
Although production in the manufacturing sector may be stabilizing, and perhaps even moving higher, it is still too early to expect an improvement in employment.
decision driven fed
That's going to be driven by the decision making of the new Fed chairman.
start strong
This is a surprisingly strong start of the year.