John Silvia
John Silvia
buyers creeping dollar gradually home losing mortgage percent percentage rates surprise visible
Home buyers need something visible on-screen to surprise them, ... If it's the dollar gradually losing another 10 percent or mortgage rates creeping up 1 percentage point, that's not going to do it.
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If people perceive that all-time high as 'normal,' that's going to make it very difficult to convince them that jobs are plentiful.
storm
If you get a storm like this every 20 years,
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If you're going to set a price below market price, you're going to have to have some sort of rationing. I don't care if it's gasoline, prescription drugs or rent control in New York City.
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The recession was largely centered in the manufacturing sector, and that is where we continue to see the strongest signs of recovery.
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There has to be concern about sustainability of growth overseas; Japan is central to that issue, ... If people are looking at fundamentals, that's the only news they have to look at this morning.
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Firms can't afford to offer much, and workers don't want to threaten to leave because of the job situation.
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Firms are substituting capital -- particularly high-tech capital -- for labor. They're putting smart machines on the factory floor and in the service industry. That may explain why high-tech orders for capital goods have been going up, despite the fact that manufacturers don't seem to be hiring a lot of people.
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We avoided the sticker shock from high heating bills in October because it was so warm. If it stays warm through Thanksgiving, we should have a good holiday shopping season.
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We are currently estimating first-quarter US real gross domestic product growth at 5.3 per cent and feel the risks are nearly uniformly stacked on the upside.
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The rate of spending is less than you would have expected given the typical business cycle. Companies have made a lot of money, but if you look at equipment and software spending, this cycle is below the pace of the past three or four cycles.
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The question is often asked: When will capital spending kick in? I answer that it already has.
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You have the Baby Boomers having the resources to buy condominiums, betting on the increase in value in the next six months, ... That activity may be the first to feel the crunch if the housing bubble bursts.
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The outlook accounting for Katrina suggests growth will slow in both the third and fourth quarter due to slower consumer spending.