John Silvia
John Silvia
bond continue discount fed gains growth higher inflation interest modest raises rates remain rise short traders trend
Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.
capital confidence flowing foreign higher impact interest negative rates stops
Once that confidence is lost, foreign capital stops flowing here. We'll have much higher interest rates and a negative impact on the economy.
continued economic employment gains good interest limited news rising risk supports upside view
This good news supports the view of continued economic and employment gains with limited upside risk of rising interest rates.
continue economy foreign interest likely private remains secular securities trend
The secular trend of foreign private interest in U.S. securities is likely to continue as long as the U.S. economy remains strong.
alone both breaking businesses cause certain changes continue energy fed fight high interest point price psychology raise rates
I think if you had $70 oil, and the Fed were to continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, that could cause a problem, ... I think there's a certain breaking point where that the price of energy alone is so high that it changes the psychology of both businesses and consumers. I think $80 would probably break the back.
change interest lifting market money negative rates rise seen sharp signal
The market has not seen a negative sharp change in fundamentals, ... You haven't seen a sharp rise in interest rates or a signal that the money isn't there to keep lifting prices.
average created demand domestic experience fewer historical increased jobs models policy predicted satisfied supply
Increased domestic demand is now being satisfied by supply from abroad. Fewer domestic jobs have been created than the average historical experience and predicted by the models used by policy makers.
line sales
On balance, I think it's the latter. In most businesses, inventories are in line with sales expectations.
couple discussion estimates heard number
I've heard a lot of discussion the number could come out stronger. We have different models, and a couple of them have estimates where the number is higher.
allow confidence data employment federal funds increase measure provides reserve taken
Taken together, all this employment data provides the Federal Reserve with a measure of confidence to allow an increase in the funds rate,
distort hazardous hiring months patterns school summer timing weather
Summer months can be particularly hazardous for forecasters, ... The timing of the end of the school year, seasonal hiring patterns and even weather can distort the monthly figure.
clearly direct language
The language will clearly be different. He'll give you a direct answer.
ahead bullet fed good increases inflation market meetings next number payroll
The Fed is going to look at this number and go full-steam ahead with 25-basis-point increases at its next two meetings to keep inflation in check, ... This is a pretty good payroll number for September. The market dodged a bullet with this report.
adjustment change consumers downward expected gasoline increase overall pace permanent saving spending view
They view the gasoline thing as temporary, and that's important because it didn't change their overall pace of spending. And that's a different kind of psychology. If it was a permanent increase in gasoline prices, then you would have expected consumers to make a more permanent adjustment downward in their spending and saving rate.