John Silvia
John Silvia
bond continue discount fed gains growth higher inflation interest modest raises rates remain rise short traders trend
Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.
ahead data growth initial inventory likely orders remains slower stage suggested
As suggested by the orders data and the ISM survey, the initial stage of inventory replenishment has not been sustained, ... Slower growth ahead remains the most likely outcome.
economic employment growth labor recovery relationship time
This is really the first post-NAFTA, post-WTO economic recovery we've ever had in this country. Because of the globalization of the labor market, the relationship between economic growth and employment is different this time than it has been in the past.
drag economic expecting flat fourth growth housing quarter second third
We're expecting housing to be flat in the second quarter and a drag on economic growth in the third quarter and fourth quarter.
central concern growth japan looking news people
There has to be concern about sustainability of growth overseas; Japan is central to that issue, ... If people are looking at fundamentals, that's the only news they have to look at this morning.
cent currently domestic gross growth nearly per product risks stacked
We are currently estimating first-quarter US real gross domestic product growth at 5.3 per cent and feel the risks are nearly uniformly stacked on the upside.
accounting both consumer due fourth growth katrina outlook quarter slow slower third
The outlook accounting for Katrina suggests growth will slow in both the third and fourth quarter due to slower consumer spending.
growth inflation looks paid pressures prices problem remain suggesting
Growth looks solid. The problem is prices paid were up again, suggesting inflation pressures remain a concern.
companies costs growth increased materials pass people profit raw seeing shouting start surprised worry
I don't think you have to worry about a profit squeeze, but don't be surprised when people start shouting profit growth has peaked. A lot of companies that are seeing increased costs for raw materials will not be able to pass them on to the consumers.
cycle despite growth hype recent
Manufacturing growth has moderated in recent months, as the cycle moderates despite the hype about the new-found recovery.
average created demand domestic experience fewer historical increased jobs models policy predicted satisfied supply
Increased domestic demand is now being satisfied by supply from abroad. Fewer domestic jobs have been created than the average historical experience and predicted by the models used by policy makers.
capital confidence flowing foreign higher impact interest negative rates stops
Once that confidence is lost, foreign capital stops flowing here. We'll have much higher interest rates and a negative impact on the economy.
line sales
On balance, I think it's the latter. In most businesses, inventories are in line with sales expectations.
couple discussion estimates heard number
I've heard a lot of discussion the number could come out stronger. We have different models, and a couple of them have estimates where the number is higher.