John Silvia
John Silvia
alone both breaking businesses cause certain changes continue energy fed fight high interest point price psychology raise rates
I think if you had $70 oil, and the Fed were to continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, that could cause a problem, ... I think there's a certain breaking point where that the price of energy alone is so high that it changes the psychology of both businesses and consumers. I think $80 would probably break the back.
buy chance figuring last people rates
A lot of people are figuring out the rates are going up and this is their last chance to get in there and buy homes.
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Once that confidence is lost, foreign capital stops flowing here. We'll have much higher interest rates and a negative impact on the economy.
buyers creeping dollar gradually home losing mortgage percent percentage rates surprise visible
Home buyers need something visible on-screen to surprise them, ... If it's the dollar gradually losing another 10 percent or mortgage rates creeping up 1 percentage point, that's not going to do it.
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The market has not seen a negative sharp change in fundamentals, ... You haven't seen a sharp rise in interest rates or a signal that the money isn't there to keep lifting prices.
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Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.
adding gone jobs means month per recovery zero
We went from adding zero to 50,000 jobs per month up to adding 300,000 jobs per month. Now we're going to adding 200,000 per month. Going from 300,000 to 200,000 means we've gone from a recovery to an expansion.
continue economy foreign interest likely private remains secular securities trend
The secular trend of foreign private interest in U.S. securities is likely to continue as long as the U.S. economy remains strong.
played washington
They are all pretty well-known. They have all played in Washington circles.
economy move neutral
An economy in neutral has started to move forward.
employment eve markets solid
Employment markets were solid on the eve of destruction.
consumer employment far housing impact oil price spending stronger wages
Employment and wages are stronger and therefore, consumer spending is stronger. Housing is slowing, but not as much as we would have expected, and the price of oil is so far not having that big an impact on the consumer.
adjusted christmas expected faster people sales signal weaker
People have adjusted faster than we expected to the way they use credit. This could be a signal that Christmas sales may be weaker than expected.
ahead data growth initial inventory likely orders remains slower stage suggested
As suggested by the orders data and the ISM survey, the initial stage of inventory replenishment has not been sustained, ... Slower growth ahead remains the most likely outcome.