John Silvia
John Silvia
companies costs growth increased materials pass people profit raw seeing shouting start surprised worry
I don't think you have to worry about a profit squeeze, but don't be surprised when people start shouting profit growth has peaked. A lot of companies that are seeing increased costs for raw materials will not be able to pass them on to the consumers.
america canada coming imported increased latin open supply
If we get increased demand, where is the supply coming from? Is it domestic, or is it imported from Canada, Latin America and Asia? That's still an open question,
adjustment change consumers downward expected gasoline increase overall pace permanent saving spending view
They view the gasoline thing as temporary, and that's important because it didn't change their overall pace of spending. And that's a different kind of psychology. If it was a permanent increase in gasoline prices, then you would have expected consumers to make a more permanent adjustment downward in their spending and saving rate.
allow confidence data employment federal funds increase measure provides reserve taken
Taken together, all this employment data provides the Federal Reserve with a measure of confidence to allow an increase in the funds rate,
activity baby betting boomers bubble buy crunch housing increase next resources six value
You have the Baby Boomers having the resources to buy condominiums, betting on the increase in value in the next six months, ... That activity may be the first to feel the crunch if the housing bubble bursts.
ahead bullet fed good increases inflation market meetings next number payroll
The Fed is going to look at this number and go full-steam ahead with 25-basis-point increases at its next two meetings to keep inflation in check, ... This is a pretty good payroll number for September. The market dodged a bullet with this report.
average created demand domestic experience fewer historical increased jobs models policy predicted satisfied supply
Increased domestic demand is now being satisfied by supply from abroad. Fewer domestic jobs have been created than the average historical experience and predicted by the models used by policy makers.
adding gone jobs means month per recovery zero
We went from adding zero to 50,000 jobs per month up to adding 300,000 jobs per month. Now we're going to adding 200,000 per month. Going from 300,000 to 200,000 means we've gone from a recovery to an expansion.
continue economy foreign interest likely private remains secular securities trend
The secular trend of foreign private interest in U.S. securities is likely to continue as long as the U.S. economy remains strong.
played washington
They are all pretty well-known. They have all played in Washington circles.
economy move neutral
An economy in neutral has started to move forward.
employment eve markets solid
Employment markets were solid on the eve of destruction.
consumer employment far housing impact oil price spending stronger wages
Employment and wages are stronger and therefore, consumer spending is stronger. Housing is slowing, but not as much as we would have expected, and the price of oil is so far not having that big an impact on the consumer.
adjusted christmas expected faster people sales signal weaker
People have adjusted faster than we expected to the way they use credit. This could be a signal that Christmas sales may be weaker than expected.